2025年技术趋势展望（第五版）

July 2025Fifth edition Which frontier technologiesmatter most for companies in2025? Our annual tech trendsreport highlights the latesttechnology breakthroughs,talent trends, use cases, andtheir potential impact oncompanies across sectors. by Lareina Yee, Michael Chui, Roger Roberts, and Sven Smit Copyright © 2025 McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved. Contents Introduction 2 AI revolution 10 01Agentic AI1102Artificial intelligence18 Compute and connectivity frontiers 26 03Application-specific semiconductors2704Advanced connectivity3405Cloud and edge computing4106Immersive-reality technologies4807Digital trust and cybersecurity5508Quantum technologies63 69 09Future of robotics7010Future of mobility7611Future of bioengineering8312Future of space technologies9013Future of energy and sustainability technologies97 Introduction how others are starting to apply them today.These findings emerge from our analysis ofquantitative measures of interest, innovation,equity investment, and talent that underpineach of the 13 trends and explore the underlyingtechnologies, uncertainties, and questions aroundthem. (For more about our research, please seethe sidebar, “Research methodology.”) The global technology landscapeis undergoingsignificant shifts, propelled by fast-movinginnovations in technologies. These are exponentiallyincreasing demand for computing power, capturingthe attention of management teams and thepublic, and accelerating experimentation. Thesedevelopments are occurring against a backdropof rising global competition as countries andcorporations race to secure leadership in producingand applying these strategic technologies. This outlook highlights transformative trendsthat are driving innovation and addressing criticalchallenges across sectors. Artificial intelligencestands out not only as a powerful technology waveon its own but also as a foundational amplifier ofthe other trends. Its impact increasingly occursvia a combination with other trends, as AI bothaccelerates progress within individual domainsand unlocks new possibilities at the intersections—accelerating the training of robots, advancingscientific discoveries in bioengineering, optimizingenergy systems, and much more. The evolution of AIsolutions in the marketplace increasingly combines This year’s McKinsey Technology Trends Outlookprovides in-depth perspectives on 13—a “baker’sdozen”—frontier technology trends with thepotential to transform global business. Executivestoday face a mandate to navigate rising complexity,scale emerging solutions, and build trust in a worldwhere the lines between digital and physical andcentralized and decentralized continue to blur. Theinsights in this report can help business leadersdecide which of these frontier technologies aremost relevant to their companies by demonstrating About the McKinsey Global Institute We benefit from the full range of McKinsey’sregional, sectoral, and functional knowledge,skills, and expertise, but editorial direction anddecisions are solely the responsibility of MGIdirectors and partners. We aim for independentand fact-based research and analysis. Noneof our work is commissioned or funded by anybusiness, government, or other institution;we share our results publicly free of charge;and we are entirely funded by the partners ofMcKinsey. For further information about MGIand to download all reports for free, please visitMcKinsey.com/mgi. This annual reportis developed by theMcKinsey Global Institute (MGI) to further ourunderstanding of how science and technologycan advance economic productivity andinnovation. We work together with McKinsey’sTechnology, Media & TelecommunicationsPractice; QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey; andMcKinsey Technology to provide insight on howcompanies are applying these new technologiesto transform their businesses. MGI was established in 1990. Our mission is toprovide a fact base to aid decision-making onthe economic and business issues most criticalto the world’s companies and policy leaders. aspects of trends we previously analyzedseparately as applied AI and generativeAI, so this year, they are examinedtogether. consumption. This has given rise to aslew of new products, new competitors,and new ecosystems. Technology trends also have a varietyof profiles along the dimensions weanalyzed. AI is a widely applicable,general-purpose technology with usecases in every industry and businessfunction—and thus lots of innovationand interest—and it is scaling rapidlyacross the business landscape. Quantumtechnologies have a different profile.Quantum computing has the potentialfor transformative impact in certaincritical domains, such as cryptographyand material science, and the basictechnology continues to be developed.Recent announcements, particularlyby technology giants, have sparkedincreased interest, but real-worldbusiness impact will require even moretechnology advancements to makequantum computing practical. Othertrends and subtrends vary across