爱立信2025年微波技术展望

Executive The global backhaul landscape is projectedto achieve a near-equal split – 49 percentmicrowave and 51 percent fiber – by 2030.Advanced economies, such as the US, showsigns of breaking a long-running trend ofincreased fiberization. In these regions,fiber is already deployed to easilyfiberized backhaul sites, leading to and transport layers. O2 TelefónicaGermany is pioneering the integration ofAI into microwave network management,setting new standards for efficiency andreducing total cost of ownership (TCO)through AI-based preventive maintenance.By converting high-granularity data Contents 02Executive summary03Backhaul media for 5G and beyond05The new frontier: AI-basedbackhaul management08Latest global developments in Key contributorsExecutive Editor: Innovations in millimeter-wave(mmWave) technology and networksimulations reveal the most effectivestrategies to double backhaul capacityto 20 Gbps. Our analysis revealsthat, provided spectrum fees aremanageable, leveraging a 2,000 MHzE-band channel with XPIC is the mostcost-effective method. This can doublethe capacity for 96 percent of existinglinks in the studied network without Microwave backhaul is continuingits steady expansion, with the installedbase of transceivers rising from 10 millionin 2022 to approximately 10.5 millioncurrently. Notably, the E-band’s shareof deployments has increased from6 to 8 percent, surpassing the longstanding38 GHz band, largely due to new rolloutsin India. Looking ahead, the W- and Articles:Alexander BondefalkHalla HasheeshJonas BjergerJonas EdstamJonas HansrydJutta KemppainenMagnus Bergman hinges on a unified management approachbetween the Radio Access Network (RAN) Backhaul mediafor 5G and beyond The global telecommunications backhaul landscaperemains dynamic, driven by increasing data consumption. Mobile data traffic continues to grow at15 percent year over year, according to theJune 2025 Ericsson Mobility Report,1largelypowered by 5G rollouts. 5G’s share ofmobile data traffic is currently 35 percent and aggregation sites, while most 5Gbackhaul in suburban and rural areas is By leveraging microwave, US serviceproviders can act faster, reduceinvestments and extend coverage. Across Western Europe, fiber rolloutmomentum is showing early signs ofa slowdown. Factors such as complexpermit processes, urban constructionchallenges and inflationary cost pressuresare slowing down expansion comparedto earlier forecasts. Service providers Trend breakers Although global patterns point to a gradualequalization between fiber and microwavebackhaul by 2030, certain markets are By 2030, global mobile traffic isexpected to rise with the introduction of6G, although the rate of network expansionwill gradually stabilize in mature markets.Service providers are balancing capacity, Contrary to the long-standing shifttoward fiber dominance in North Americanmarkets, the US is witnessing renewedinvestment in microwave infrastructure.This change is driven by three mainfactors: firstly, the acceleration of rural 5Gdeployments where fiber economics remain Within the broader North East Asiamarket region, which includes mainlandChina, the microwave share is expected toremain at approximately 6 percent by 2030.The presence of extensive rural andhard-to-reach areas within mainlandChina ensures the continued relevance ofmicrowave technology. In the Taiwanesemarket, recent regulatory changes that Backhaul media equalization While backhaul connections will keepincreasing overall, the ratio of microwaveto fiber in 2030 is expected to equalizeto a 49/51 split along the trendspreviously identified in 2023, as seen Network resilience and In India, fiber rollout is accelerating fasterthan previously projected, particularly inurban areas. Service providers have beenfocusing on easy-to-reach, high-capacitysites and replacing trunk links. While fiberis expanding rapidly, microwave continuesto play a major role in rural and suburban In the realm of network resilience,microwave remains a vital, future-proofenabler of robust, high-performancenetworks, giving service providers As 5G networks mature and preparationfor 6G begins, resilience and redundancyare vital to maintain service quality. Today, microwave backhaul is usedin 75 percent of the live 5G networksworldwide, ensuring fast, dependableconnectivity (Figure 3). Often, dual-carrierXPIC links in traditional frequency bandsact as the foundation for 5G backhaul,offering long reach and future-proof Conclusions The global backhaul landscape is ontrack to reach a 49/51 split betweenmicrowave and fiber solutions by 2030.However, advanced economies such asthe US show signs of breaking the trendof increased fiberization. In these regions,fiber is already deployed to easily fiberizedbackhaul sites, leading to renewed interestin modern, high-capacity microwave.Overall, the main use of fiber is foraggregation and urban areas, whilemicrowave solutions continue to beindispensable for mobile ba