中国经济：综合走弱PMI反映了经济放缓

Broad-based weakening PMI reflectedeconomicmoderation Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk ChinaPMI recorded its weakest October reading since 2008, reflecting afurther slowdown in economic activity in 4Q25.Trade pressure mounted asbothexport and import order indices dropped to recent lows,whileproductionand new order indices further contracted.Corporatesprocurement and orderson hand declined as demand softened. Non-manufacturingPMI inched up as service improved while constructionextended its weakness. The broad-based weakening in PMI pointed togrowth pressure in 4Q25 given the much higher base last year, which mayprompt continued policy easing. We expect the central bank to further cutthe RRRand LPR in Nov/Dec by 50bpsand 10bps. The Ministry of Financemay also need to introduce additional fiscal stimulus measures, includingaccelerated fiscal spending and an early front-loading of the 2026 debtquota, to support households, consumption, and the property sector. Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967frankliu@cmbi.com.hk Manufacturing PMI contracted to recent low as trade pressuremounted.Manufacturing PMIdropped to49% in Oct from49.8%,missingmarket expectations at 50%. Both export and import order indicesdroppedtonew lowsat 45.9% and 46.8% since reciprocal tariffsin Apr, as exportfront-loadinglostmomentum. Production indexslidinto contraction at 49.7%from 51.9%, while new order index declined to 48.8% from 49.7%, bothmarkinganew low since Dec 2023.Theanti-involution policy continued todrive reflation,yet more mildly,in upstream sectors, as raw materialpurchase price index moderated to 52.5% in Oct from 53.2%. But the ex-factory price further contracted to 47.5% in Oct from 48.2%, indicating thefinal demand was still weak. Corporates procurementand orders on handdeclined as demand softened.Breaking down by sector, food processing,auto and other transport equipmentsaw robust performance in both neworders and production, whiletextiles & apparel,chemical fibers, rubber, andplastic products, andnon-metallic mineral productssaw notable contraction. Source: NBS, CMBIGM Source: NBS, CMBIGM Non-manufacturing PMIedged upamid recovering service sector.Non-manufacturing PMIedged up to50.1% inOctfrom 50%, missing themarket expectation at 50.3%. Service PMIpicked up to 50.2% from 50.1%,driven by smaller contraction in price and employment indices. New orderand business expectation both fell. Breaking down by sector, holiday-related activities includingrail &air transportation, lodging and culture,andsports & entertainment showed high prosperity, while insurance and realestate contracted. Construction PMI dipped to49.1% inOctfrom 50.6%,suggesting that weakness in infrastructure investment persisted intoOct. Broad-based weakening in PMI indicates further deterioration ineconomic activity.Oct’s PMI marked the weakest reading for the monthsince 2008, reflecting that economic momentum mayslownotably in 4Q25amid demand overdraft from earlier export frontloading and stimulus policy.Given the much higher base last year, growth pressure in 4Q25 mayprompt moderate policy easing.We expect the central bank to further cuttheRRR and LPR in Nov or Dec by 50bpsand 10bps. The Ministry ofFinance may also need to introduce additional fiscal stimulus measures,particularly those targeting households, consumption and property sector. Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer thatthe analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or tradedin the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY HOLDSELLNOT RATED : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential