2026年全球展望：审慎缘由

Reasons to remain cautious EIU, part of The Economist Group,provides a forward-looking perspectiveon the global agenda. With over 75years of expertise, it delivers political,economic and policy forecasts for200 countries. EIU’s insights, backedby a network of 400 analysts, helpfinancial institutions, governmentsand multinational corporations makeinformed decisions and navigatecomplex business environments. Intelligencethat movesyou forward Our solutions Operational Risk Country Analysis Plan effectively with EIU’s expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisablerisk matrices, our service provides you with the toolsneeded to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks toyour operations. Understand the political, policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the globaldynamics that affect your organisation, enabling youto operate effectively and plan for the future. Financial Risk Speaker Bureau Gain unparalleled insights into the global financiallandscape. Combining EIU’s market-leading dataand country expertise, our rigorous risk-modellingframework enables you to accurately identify risks tofiscal sustainability, currency and the banking sector. Strengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIU’s experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions, or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political,economic and policy trends affecting your organisation. Contact us for more information The full analysis in this report is available through our Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features, please contact usor visit www.eiu.com. Hong Kong New York London Economist IntelligenceThe Adelphi1-11 John Adam StreetLondon WC2N 6HTUnited Kingdom Economist Intelligence1301 Cityplaza Four12 Taikoo Wan RoadTaikoo ShingHong Kong Economist Intelligence900 Third Avenue, 16th FloorNew YorkNY 10022United States Tel:+44 (0)20 7576 8000E-mail:london@eiu.com Tel:+ 852 2585 3888E-mail:asia@eiu.com Tel:+1 212 541 0500E-mail:americas@eiu.com Dubai Gurgaon Economist IntelligencePO Box No - 450056Office No - 1301AAurora TowerDubai Media CityDubaiUnited Arab Emirates Economist Intelligence9th FloorInfinity Tower ADLF Cyber CityGurugram 122002HaryanaIndia Tel:+91 124 6409486E-mail:asia@eiu.com Tel:+971 4 4463 147E-mail:mea@eiu.com Contents What to watch in 2026Key risksKey opportunities568 What to watch in 2026 2025 was “the endof the beginning” Winston Churchill, a UK war-timeprime minister, described the 1942allied victory at El Alamein as “notthe end, nor the beginning of theend, but the end of the beginning”.The rise in policy uncertainty in2025, driven in large part by thestart of the second administrationof the US president, Donald Trump,has accelerated tectonic plateshifts across the global economy.The impact of these shifts–onthe global economy, political andinstitutional structures, trade andinvestment flows–will becomeclearer in 2026. place, and US “reciprocal” tariffs forother countries have largely settledaround 10-20% (and may be thrownout entirely by the US SupremeCourt). That should at least givemore clarity on the state of affairs.However,there are three mainreasons to remain cautious.First,tariffs have risen at a fast pace tolevels not seen in the modern era,and the economic effects of thatare still in their infancy. Second,there remains a great deal ofuncertainty over the future path oftariffs, including at the sectoral level.Third, outside of trade,geopoliticalrisks remain elevated, as the USno longer aspires to lead a worldorder premised on rising globalco-operation and trade. In late 2025, news-based measuresof economic policy uncertainty haveretreated from their April highs, theChina-US trade truce remains in The August 1st reciprocal tariffs push the effective rate back up to 1930s peakUS weighted average tariff rate (WATR); % Key risks Global growth is forecast to slowagain in 2026, to 2.4%, as thetrends triggered by US policyuncertainty in 2025–includingtrade dislocation, higher borrowingcosts, faster US inflation andsofter global demand–reach theirfull expression.The economicblowback to the US has so farbeen offset by a boom in AIinvestment, but signs of this surgeslowing are already appearing.Personal consumption has beenlosing momentum and housinginvestment has turned down—twoimportant bellwethers of US (andtherefore global) growth. In the US,stagflationary conditions are likely tocontinue into 2026, as softer (non-AI) investment and a tariff-induceduptick in goods inflation drag ongrowth in the coming quarters. For the rest of the world, much ofthe growth shock has yet to befelt, owing to the front-loading ofexports to the US in early 2025.Given that prior strength representsdemand brought forward, not afundamental increase in demand,that suggests that there will be“payback” ahead. We expect aperiod of below-trend growth inglobal goods