2026年全球市场展望：思想、机器与市场变革

Minds, machines, and Minds, machines, and market shifts in many developed economies, exacerbated byexpansionary fiscal policies, tariffs, and labor marketshifts. Growth trajectories are diverging, with theU.S. showing resilience while Europe and China faceheadwinds from front‑loaded demand and ongoing Eric Veiel, CFAHead of Global Investments and CIO Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer just apromise—it’s powering measurable change acrossthe global economy and financial markets. Afteryears of hype and speculation, the AI boom hascrossed a critical threshold: Ideas are becoming Equity markets are broadening, with leadershipmoving beyond the original AI mega‑cap names toinclude companies building the physical backbone ofAI and those positioned to benefit from broader sector This transformation is most visible in the surgeof investment into physical infrastructure—data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, energygrids, and more—driving robust economic growth,particularly in the U.S. Major spending incentives In fixed income, higher yields and increased supplyfrom government deficit spending underscorethe importance of disciplined credit selectionand the appeal of inflation protected securities.Private markets are experiencing a revitalization Yet, as markets rush to capitalize on theseopportunities, stretched valuations in key AI‑relatedsectors are fueling concerns over a potential bubble.The speed and scale of capital deployment haveled to areas of speculative activity and anxietyabout whether current prices reflect sustainable For multi‑asset portfolios, agility is essential.Successful navigation will require balancingexposure to enduring AI leaders with emergingopportunities in cyclical and international markets,all while remaining vigilant to persistent macro risks. Fiscal expansion to propel U.S.economy in multispeed world Tomasz WieladekChief European Blerina UruçiChief U.S. Economist, Chris Kushlis, CFAChief Emerging Market Look for the U.S. economy to shake off its growth scare from the secondhalf of 2025 and outperform expectations in 2026 as AI spending andfiscal expansion provide support. Europe, on the other hand, couldlag consensus estimates because the front‑loading of tariffs in 2025 Fiscal spending is increasing globally (Fig. 1) U.S. on upward trend while German fiscal set to jump Fiscal expansion to strengthen U.S. capex tailwind AI‑related capital expenditure (capex) has significantly boosted U.S.growth in 2025, and the capex incentives in the “One Big BeautifulBill Act” (OBBBA) should only strengthen that tailwind next year. Thebeneficial effects of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) late‑2025 rate cuts willadd to the U.S. economy’s health in 2026. The labor market may be But inflation remains an overarching risk. With U.S. government debt atmore than 120% of gross domestic product (GDP)1even as inflationarypolicies such as tariffs and immigration restrictions have a growing impact,the Fed will have difficulty returning inflation to its 2% target. Expectations ECB could lean dovish There was much front‑loading of European exports to the U.S. in 2025 to get ahead oftariff implementation, so eurozone manufacturing may be weaker than expected in 2026.This could surprise the European Central Bank (ECB), shifting its policy stance moredovish. Germany’s very large fiscal expansion is likely to drive German bund yields higher, Key takeaway The U.S. economy is shaking off the 2025 growth scare, but theeurozone may lag as tariff front‑loading weighs on manufacturing. Political pressure in the UK is likely to drive some fiscal consolidation, albeit from levelsthat are quite expansionary. In response, the Bank of England should be able to ease Japan has overcome the opposite problem of other developed markets: deflation. In fact,the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to be behind the curve on tightening monetary policy.We expect labor shortages to cause wage inflation, building on the existing food inflation.With Japan’s new government, more fiscal stimulus is likely, adding fuel to inflation and Inflation under control in emerging markets Inflation and debt levels are under control in emerging markets—particularly in Asia—relative to their history. In contrast with developed economies, emerging markets havemade strides toward reducing their debt burdens over the last 10 to 20 years. Emergingmarket growth looks decent, if a bit on the sluggish side. The global trading system has The tariff situation with China remains particularly unsettled. The country’s“anti‑involution” campaign to reduce production of commonly exported goods shouldincrease their prices, further complicating global trading relationships. Chinese domesticeconomic data are likely to continue to soften, and its housing industry remains under From hype to hard returns:AIenters a new phase Dom Rizzo, CFAPortfolio Manager,Global Technology Equity Mark Stodden, CFACredit Analyst Three years after the launch of ChatG