2026年全球金属与采矿行业展望：昙花一现的 “愚人金” 式反弹，还是值得长期持有的宝藏？

Global Metals & Mining 2026 Outlook: Fools gold rally or longterm treasure? Most base metals are nearing their cyclical peaks, while bulk commodities appear reasonablyvalued relative to historical averages. If you believe (like we do) that commodities are cyclical,then as we enter 2026, one should adopt a more cautious stance (i.e., have fewer longinvestment ideas in general). Our top investment ideas prioritize stability and quality (RIO:Outperform), a currency hedge (ABX/B: Outperform), and less-expensive copper exposure(FCX: Outperform). Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com The metals and mining sector performed strongly in 2025: precious and base metalsposted substantial gains, while bulks were flat or slightly positive (Exhibit 7). Notably, allmining equities under our coverage ended the year in positive territory (Exhibit 8). However,valuations now look stretched (Exhibit 2), with the market assigning above-averagemultiples at what may be a cyclical peak—a potential “peak-on-peak” scenario. We forecast copper prices to average $11,500/t in Q1, moderating to $10,000/tin Q3 and Q4 as momentum fades, demand softens, and substitution—along withpotentially lower EV sales—dampens sentiment.Copper recently reached all-timehighs near $13,000/t, driven by both natural (e.g., geotechnical events) and man-made(e.g., trading arbitrage, strikes) supply disruptions. The electrification theme continues tosupport copper’s valuation, and speculative momentum keeps prices elevated. However,negative economic headlines—especially related to AI and EVs—could trigger rapidoutflows and price corrections. Iron ore prices are expected to decline to $96/t in 2026.Prices have remainedstable around $105/t CFR since September, supported by an increased Chinese imports.However, with China’s steel production likely to fall further in 2026, iron ore prices couldcome under pressure. Despite this negative outlook, we remain Outperform on RIO, asconsensus estimates on RIO’s realized iron ore prices are already at $80/t FOB (~$90/tCFR). We mark gold price to market at $4,180/oz in 2026, but see momentum supportedby continued central bank buying(Exhibit 79) as they diversify reserves away from theUS dollar. Gold ETF inflows accelerated in 2025 (Exhibit 80), reflecting rising interest fromboth institutional and retail investors. Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts (2–3 in 2026;Exhibit 82) should also support gold prices. We remain Outperform on Barrick to expressour positive view on gold. Met coal prices are forecast to average $210/t in 2026.While global steel demandoutside India is slowing and India is boosting domestic met coal production, prices aresupported by potential supply reductions. BMA cancelled the Saraji East expansion inQueensland due to high royalties, Coronado’s Mammoth UG project is suspended followinga fatality, and Indonesia plans to reduce export quotas to prioritize domestic needs. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS As we move into 2026, we are updating our valuation methodology by rolling our EBITDA estimates forward from FY26 to FY27for all companies under coverage. We have Outperform ratings on Barrick, Freeport McMoRan, and Rio Tinto. ABX (Outperform) We are raising our target price from CAD 60.00 to CAD 64.00 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rateestimates. We continue to use an unchanged 50/50 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.5x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. FCX (Outperform) We are raising our price target from USD 45.00 to USD 53.50 to reflect our latest commodity price deck, and exchange rateestimates. We also adjust the EV/EBITDA multiple from 6.00x to 6.50x. We use EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.50x against ourforward 2027 EBITDA estimate. RIO (Outperform) We are raising our price target from GBP 52.00 to GBP 62.00 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rateestimates. We continue to use EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.00x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate, but adjust the valuationsplit between DCF and EV/EBITDA from 50/50 to 25/75 to give greater emphasis on the multiple-based valuation approach. We have our Market-Perform ratings on Anglo American, Antofagasta, BHP, Boliden, Glencore, Newmont and Vale. AAL (Market-Perform) We are raising our price target from GBP 22.00 GBP 24.50 to reflect our latest commodity prices and exchange ratesestimates. We continue to use EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.00x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate, but adjust the valuationsplit between DCF and EV/EBITDA from 50/50 to 25/75 to give greater emphasis on the multiple-based valuation approach. ANTO (Market-Perform) We are raising our price target from GBP 22.00 to GBP 27.00 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rateestimates. We use an unchanged 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x against our forwar