早上洞察：2025年10月31日

Morning Insight:October 31, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Glass:Weak in the short term, range-bound in the medium term. In the short run, according to industry participants, the recent industryconference fell short of expectations, significantly weakening marketexpectations for supply contraction in the glass sector going forward. Atthe same time, the real estate markethas yet to show meaningfulimprovement on the demand side. With bearish expectations on both supplyand demand, prices remain weak. Going forward, the market needs to note that spot transactions have beenrelatively stable recently and data from industry agencies show inventorydeclines, yet glass prices have still been trending slightly lower—indicating a degree of divergence between spot and futures. In terms ofpositions, the open interest in the current main futures contract hasalready exceeded the previous peak seen in late May, while the currentmain contract price is roughly 10% higher than the price of the Septembercontract atthat time. From a medium-to long-term perspective,“anti-deflation and anti-involution”is the policy direction, and the futures curve has priced inthis optimism through a forward premium. However, if production-cutexpectations fail to materialize, the market may gradually compress thisfutures premium, and prices could even fall into backwardation. Themarket is likely to fluctuate repeatedly in this process.In summary, glass remains biased weaker in the short term, while themedium-term outlook points to a choppy, range-bound market. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Chinese authorities on Thursday issued a notice regarding improvementsto the policies of duty-free shops aimed at boosting consumption. Effective this Saturday, the policies are designed to encourage consumersto shop in the country, according to the notice jointly issued by theMinistry of Finance and four other government departments. The measures mainly focus on four aspects, including optimizing the tax-refund and duty-free policies, as well as further expanding the range ofproducts available in duty-free shops. The notice encourages duty-free shops to purchase more latest and hot-selling commodities including mobile phones, micro-drones, sportinggoods, health food, and pet food, so as to enrich tourists' shoppingchoices. Efforts will also be made to relax the approval authority and fine-tunefacilitation and supervision measures for duty-free shops, said thenotice. Particularly, qualified enterprises operating duty-free shops areencouraged to buy more high-quality and featured domestic goods, thenotice said. It added that purchasing such goods and selling them atcertain duty-free stores shall be regarded as exports, and value-addedtax and consumption tax shall be refunded or exempted. These stores are also encouraged to provide online booking services, andcommodities booked at downtown duty-free shops can be picked up at theentry ports stores, the notice said. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China has allocated a total of 500 billion yuan (about 70.56 billionU.S. dollars) through a new policy-based financial instrument, thecountry's major policy banks announced on Thursday.The China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and theAgricultural Development Bank of China allocated 250 billion yuan, 100billion yuan and 150 billion yuan, respectively, to support theconstruction of projects in key areas and weak links. The move is expected to stimulate over 7 trillion yuan in investment,according to statistics from the policy banks. The financial instrumentprioritizes projects in technological innovation, consumption expansionand foreign trade stabilization, while also supporting initiatives inmajor economic provinces and private investment projects. Industry experts believe the financial instrument will accelerate theconstruction of projects planned in the first half of the year, boosttangible output in the fourth quarter, expand effective investment, andpromote the stable and healthy development of China's economy. (Source:Xinhua) 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,weakened 21 pips to 7.0864 against the U.S. dollar Thursday, according tothe China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regu