全球经济状况调查：2025年第三季度

Executive summary. Confidence rose quite sharply in North America andAsia Pacific but fell back in Western Europe.Therewas a strong rise in confidence in North America in Q3(seeChart 2), aided in part by another improvement insentiment among U.S.-based accountants. Nevertheless,confidence in the region remains at a low level, andthere was quite a large drop in the forward-looking NewOrders Index, which is at its lowest since the height ofthe pandemic in Q2 2020. The Capital Expenditure andEmployment indices also speak to significant caution onthe part of firms. Confidence also expanded strongly inAsia Pacific, reversing the Q2 decline. The improvementmay reflect various factors, including the resilience ofthe global economy and some decline in tariff-relateduncertainty. By contrast, confidence fell quite sharply inWestern Europe, amid a large decline in the UK. Fearsabout large tax rises in the upcoming Budget are likelyweighing on sentiment in the latter. Caution evident among finance professionals in Q3 2025, as previous improvement inconfidence stalls Economic pressures continue to dominate riskperceptions among accountants globally, closelyfollowed by geopolitical uncertainty.Cybersecuritywas also ranked highly, reflecting its systemic reachacross sectors and regions. Open responses reveal acritical point: cyber risk is no longer confined to IT – it isa governance and cultural challenge. Capital Expenditure and Employment indices. The former isat the bottom end of the range of readings it has registeredsince the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The Employment Index is at quite a low level historically,reflecting sluggish job markets in a number of economies.Confidence among chief financial officers (CFOs) declinedagain (seeChart 15). It is meaningfully below its historicalaverage1but has been lower on a number of occasions inthe past, including as recently as Q4 2024. Confidence among global accountants declines slightly.The ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey(GECS) suggests that global confidence eased slightly inQ3 2025 (seeChart 1), following some recovery in Q2.Confidence remains at a low level historically. There wasalso a second consecutive decline in the New OrdersIndex, which is at its lowest level in the post-pandemicperiod, albeit without being particularly depressed byhistorical standards. There were also declines in the Accountants remain cautious, and the GECS pointsto the risk of some slowing in global growth.The globaleconomy proved more resilient than expected in the firsthalf of 2025, despite the major disruptions to internationaltrade. All our key indicators declined by varying degreesin Q3, with confidence remaining low and the New OrdersIndex now at its weakest since Q2 2020. While thereadings don’t necessarily indicate that a major slowdownis imminent, they nonetheless point to the risk of someslowing in global growth over the next few quarters.Developments in the U.S. economy and policy, as well asinternational trade and geopolitics, remain key areas ofuncertainty for the coming months. ‘All our key globalindicators declinedby varying degreesin Q3 2025.’ Global cost pressures rose and remain elevatedin advanced economies.The proportion of WesternEuropean accountants reporting increased operatingcosts rose sharply and remains extremely elevatedhistorically. Cost pressures appear very heightened inthe UK. They rose modestly in North America and remainon the high side historically (seeChart 5). 1. Global and regional analysis The Global New Orders Index declined in Q3 (seeChart3) and is now at its lowest level in the post-pandemicperiod, albeit not that far below its historical average. Thefall in the forward-looking New Orders Index raises the riskof some easing in global growth over coming quarters.Of the major regions, there was quite a sharp declinein the index for North America, its third consecutivequarterly fall. It is now at its lowest level since the troughin Q2 2020, during the pandemic, and is well below itshistorical average. There was also another decline in theNew Orders Index for Western Europe. It is at a relatively in tariff-related uncertainty, and resilient domesticdemand. A large fall in confidence in the UK was a majorfactor weighing on sentiment in Western Europe, amid aweak economy and fear of further large tax rises at theupcoming Budget in November. Confidence among global accountants declined slightly in Q3 2025 and remains at alow level by historical standards. may have contributed to the improvement in sentimentin North America, although the sharp rise in importtariffs and continued policy uncertainty are factors likelyinhibiting a more pronounced recovery in confidence.The improvement in sentiment in the export-orientedAsia Pacific region may reflect the resilience in the globaleconomy, strong demand for technology-related exportsamid the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, some reduction There were significant differences