全球经济状况调查：2025年第四季度

Executive summary. uncertainty as countries have agreed trade deals ortruces with the U.S.; and the global artificial intelligence(AI) boom, which is boosting technology-related exports.Confidence declined in North America, where accountantsappear very downbeat at present, albeit somewhat lessso than in the first half of 2025. Higher import tariffs, policyuncertainty and high interest rates likely remain importantdrags on sentiment. Confidence was largely unchanged atvery low levels in Western Europe and remains extremelydepressed in the UK. Accountants flagged economic pressure, cyberdisruption and geopolitical uncertainty as the toprisk priorities, underscoring that risks are increasinglycomplex and interlinked (seeChart 17). Despite this,Q4 2025 respondents’ preparedness for non-financialshocks, such as cyber threats, misconduct and fraud,appeared moderate at best, signalling a gap betweenrisk awareness and organisational readiness in an era ofheightened uncertainty. Despite a resilient global economy, accountants remain downbeat entering 2026 (CFOs) in our survey improved, but remained below itshistorical average,1while their perceptions of new ordersat their firms deteriorated (seeChart 15). Confidence among global accountants remains weak.The ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) of almost 1200 accountants and other financeprofessionals suggests that global confidence was largelyunchanged in Q4 2025 (seeChart 1). Confidence remainsat a low level historically, albeit meaningfully higher than itstrough in Q1 2025. There was a third consecutive declinein the New Orders Index, which is at its lowest in the post-pandemic period, albeit significantly above its pandemic-era low. Confidence among the chief financial officers Confidence rose in Asia Pacific but declined inNorth America.Confidence among Asia Pacific-basedaccountants rose again in Q4 (seeChart 2) and is now atits highest since Q2 2024. A combination of factors arelikely contributing to the improvement in sentiment: theresilience of global growth; a reduction in global trade Accountants remain cautious entering 2026, amid ahighly uncertain global backdrop.The global economyperformed better than expected in 2025 and looks setto remain resilient in 2026 amid recent monetary easingby central banks, stock market gains, supportive fiscalpolicies in key countries, and the ongoing global AI boom.But there remains significant uncertainty, amid a wide arrayof risks, which are more heavily skewed to the downside.Our key GECS indicators continue to point to the risk ofsome moderation in global growth, although they arenot indicative of a major slowdown. Nevertheless, withconfidence low, and corporate caution evident, wereanother major global shock to occur over coming quartersit could send businesses more firmly into retrenchmentmode, raising the risk of a more pronounced slowing inglobal growth. The Employment and Capital Expenditure indicesspeak to significant caution among firms in advancedeconomies.In North America, the Employment Indexwas at a record low in Q4 (seeChart 9), even beneaththe trough seen during the pandemic, while the CapitalExpenditure Index was at its second lowest on record,although it was not that much lower than a number ofother readings in recent years. ‘Our key globalindicators werelargely unchangedin Q4 2025,with confidenceremaining low byhistorical standards.’ 1. Global and regional analysis In the other regions,2confidence registered anothermeaningful increase in South Asia and is now at itshistorical average. There was also a small improvementin the Middle East, where confidence is just below itsaverage. By contrast, there was another marked fall inconfidence among accountants in the Africa region. It isnow at its lowest since Q2 2020, albeit only slightly belowits level of Q4 2024. pandemic period, although it is not that far below itshistorical average. Recent declines in the forward-lookingNew Orders Index raise the risk of some easing in globalgrowth, although it does not appear to be signalling amajor slowdown. There were no large changes in theindividual indices for the major economic regions. Therewas a small rise in North America, but the series remainsclose to its post-pandemic low, recorded in Q3. The NewOrders Index was largely unchanged in Western Europe,where it remains below its historical average, albeit notsignificantly. There was a small decline in new orders in Confidence among global accountants was largely unchanged in Q4 2025. was largely unchanged in Western Europe. It remains veryweak by historical standards, with sentiment in the UK veryclose to record lows. Meanwhile, following a sharp rise inQ3, confidence declined again in North America. It is veryweak by historical standards, albeit above the depressedlevels in the first half of 2025. The large rise in U.S. importtariffs, elevated interest rates, and policy uncertainty,the last of which was not helped by the extended U.