全球金融稳定报告

GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORT Shifting Groundbeneath the Calm 2025OCT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORT Shifting Groundbeneath the Calm 2025OCT ©2025 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library Names: International Monetary Fund.Title: Global financial stability report.Other titles: GFSR | World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2002- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematictitles. | Began with issue for March 2002.Subjects: LCSH: Capital market—Statistics—Periodicals. | International finance—Forecasting—Periodicals. |Economic stabilization—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HG4523.G557 ISBNs:979-8-22902-318-4 (paper)979-8-22902-545-5 (ePub)979-8-22902-543-0 (web PDF) Disclaimer:TheGlobal Financial Stability Reportis a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year,in the spring and fall. The report draws out the financial ramifications of economic issues highlightedin the IMF’sWorld Economic Outlook. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefitedfrom comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the reporton April 11, 2025. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do notnecessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities. Recommended citation:International Monetary Fund. 2025.Global Financial Stability Report: ShiftingGround beneath the Calm.Washington, DC, October. Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publications ServicesPO Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgeLibrary.IMF.org Assumptions and Conventionsvii Further Informationviii ix Executive Summaryxii IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, September 2025xvii Chapter 1. Shifting Ground beneath the Calm: Stability Challenges amid Changes inFinancial Markets Chapter 1 at a Glance1Introduction1Financial Market Developments and Asset Valuations2Financial Conditions Ease, but the Growth-at-Risk Metric Remains Elevated9Emerging and Frontier Markets10Sovereign Bond Markets14Financial Intermediaries21Corporate Credit Risk29Policy Recommendations34Box 1.1. Global Real Estate Update38Box 1.2. Low Interest Rates in China Could Imperil Bank Profits and Lending41Box 1.3. Banks and Insurers Are Deepening Ties with the Private Credit Ecosystem43References45 Chapter 2. Risk and Resilience in the Global Foreign Exchange Market Chapter 2 at a Glance47Introduction47Macrofinancial Shocks and the Global Foreign Exchange Market: A Conceptual Framework51The Evolving Landscape of the Global Foreign Exchange Market53Macrofinancial Uncertainty and FX Trading Dynamics56Uncertainty Shocks and Stress in Foreign Exchange Markets59Spillovers of Foreign Exchange Market Stress to Other Asset Classes64Conclusion and Policy Recommendations65Box 2.1. Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics around the April US Tariff Announcement68Box 2.2. The Relevance of Settlement Risk in Foreign Exchange Markets70Box 2.3. Implications of Operational Disruptions in Foreign Exchange Markets72References74 Chapter 3. Global Shocks, Local Markets: The Changing Landscape ofEmerging Market Sovereign Debt 77 Chapter 3 at a GlanceIntroduction 7777 Framework for Assessing EMDE Sovereign Debt Markets79Recent Trends in EMDE Sovereign Debt Markets80EMDE Bond Market Sensitivity to Global Shocks85Vulnerabilities: Limited Absorption Capacity and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus87Deepening Local Currency Bond Markets to Enhance Financial Stability92Policy Recommendations97Box 3.1. Local Currency Debt and Domestic Investors in the Corporate Sector inEmerging Market and Developing Economies100Box 3.2. Case Studies of Local Currency Bond Market Reforms in Emerging Market andDeveloping Economies Supported by IMF Technical Assistance102References103 Figures Figure ES.1. Economic Uncertainty and Financial VolatilityxiiFigure ES.2. Near-Term Growth-at-Risk Framework ForecastxiiFigure ES.3. US Dollar versus Interest Rate DifferentialsxiiiFigure ES.4. Forced Sales of Bond Funds under the Waterfall ApproachxiiiFigure ES.5. Share of Total Assets of Weak Banks, by RegionxiiiFigure ES.6. Effects of Investor Composition on Emerging Market Local BondMarket SensitivityxivFigure ES.7. Estimated “r–g” (Five-Year Ahead) in Emerging Markets,by Average Credit Rating BandxivFigure ES.8. Stablecoin Market CapxvFigure ES.9. Effect of an Increase in Microfinancial Uncertainty on ForeignExchange Market ConditionsxvFigure 1.1. Asset Prices amid Still-Elevated Uncertainty3Figure 1.2. Some Developing Divergences5Figure 1.3. Equity Valuation Pressures7Figure 1.4. Expected Profit Margins Have Been Revised Down in Most Cases9Figure 1.5. Financial Conditions Index10Figure 1.6. Global Growth-at-Risk11Figure 1.7. Pressures on Major Emerging Markets Have Ea