增强不确定性中的韧性：2025年4月全球金融稳定报告

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORT Enhancing Resilienceamid Uncertainty INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORT Enhancing Resilienceamid Uncertainty Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library Names: International Monetary Fund.Title: Global financial stability report.Other titles: GFSR | World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2002- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematictitles. | Began with issue for March 2002.Subjects: LCSH: Capital market—Statistics—Periodicals. | International finance—Forecasting—Periodicals. |Economic stabilization—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HG4523.G557 ISBNs:979-8-22900-326-1 (paper)979-8-22900-334-6 (ePub)979-8-22900-331-5 (web PDF) Disclaimer:TheGlobal Financial Stability Reportis a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year,in the spring and fall. The report draws out the financial ramifications of economic issues highlightedin the IMF’sWorld Economic Outlook. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefitedfrom comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the reporton April 11, 2025. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do notnecessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities. Recommended citation:International Monetary Fund. 2025.Global Financial Stability Report: EnhancingResilience amid Uncertainty.Washington, DC. April. Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publications ServicesPO Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgeLibrary.IMF.org Assumptions and Conventionsvi Further Informationvii viii ix Executive Summaryxi IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2025xv Chapter 1. Enhancing Resilience amid Global Trade Uncertainty1 The Risk of Further Asset Price Corrections2Financial Stability Risks Have Increased Significantly6Financial Institutions: Increasingly Leveraged and Interconnected6Nonbank Intermediaries: High Leverage Exacerbates Losses and Imperils Market Functioning11Emerging and Frontier Markets: Challenges and Resilience14Sovereign Bond Market Functioning21Corporate and Household: Vulnerabilities Assessment25Policy Recommendations34Box 1.1. DeepSeek and the AI Revolution36Box 1.2. Lower Bond Yields Are Exerting Pressure on Chinese Insurers38Box 1.3. Declining Enthusiasm for Green Investments Is Widening the Climate Financing Gap40References41 Chapter 2. Geopolitical Risks: Implications for Asset Prices and Financial Stability Chapter 2 at a Glance43Introduction43Transmission of Geopolitical Risk to Asset Prices: Framework and Stylized Facts46Geopolitical Risk Shocks and Aggregate Stock Prices49Exposure of Firms to Geopolitical Risk51Response of Sovereign Risk Premiums to Geopolitical Risk56Pricing of Geopolitical Risk58Implications of Geopolitical Risk Exposure for the Financial System61Conclusion and Policy Recommendations64Box 2.1. Tail Risks to Stock Market Returns Amid Global Geopolitical Risks67References68 Figures Figure ES.1. Economic Uncertainty and Financial VolatilityxiFigure ES.2. Financial Conditions IndexxiFigure ES.3. Upcoming International Maturing Debt of Frontier EconomiesxiiFigure ES.4. US Bank Credit Issued to Nonbank Financial InstitutionsxiiFigure ES.5. Ratio of Gross Notional Exposure to Net Asset ValuexiiFigure ES.6. Swap Rates Minus Treasury Bond Yieldsxii Figure 1.1. Asset Price Movements since the October 2024Global Financial Stability Report3Figure 1.2. Asset Valuation Pressures4Figure 1.3. Strong Performance of Bitcoin Outperformance and Broad-Based Adoption Prices5Figure 1.4. Financial Conditions Index6Figure 1.5. Global Growth-at-Risk7Figure 1.6. Challenges to Global Banks’ Outlook8Figure 1.7. Risk-Weighted Asset Densities Continue to Decline and Vary Substantially across Banks9Figure 1.8. Financial Stability’s Increasing Dependence on Resilience ofNonbank Financial Intermediaries10Figure 1.9. Liquidity Management in Select Business Development Companies andCross-Border Flows in Direct Lending11Figure 1.10. Asset Managers’ Increasing Long Futures Positions in Recent Years12Figure 1.11. Reasons for Asset Managers’ Demand for Long Futures Positions13Figure 1.12. Elevated Hedge Fund Leverage14Figure 1.13. Emerging Markets: External Headwinds15Figure 1.14. Emerging Markets: Sovereign Financing and Private Sector Risks17Figure 1.15. Longer-Term View on Foreign Participation in Emerging Market Bond Markets18Figure 1.16. Frontier Economies19Figure 1.17. China’s Bond Market20Figure 1.18. Sovereign Bond Issuance in the United States and the Euro Area22Figure 1.19. Dealer Balance Sheets and Intermediation Capacity23Figure 1.20. Dealers’ Intermediation Shift toward Higher Margin Activities24Figure 1.21. Cross-Border Funding amid Ongoing Quantitative Tightening25Figure 1.22. Corporate Cred