2024年4月全球金融稳定报告（英文版）

GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORTThe Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks 2024APRINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORTThe Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks 2024APRINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ©2024 International Monetary FundCover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions DivisionComposition: Absolute Service, Inc.; and AGS, An RR Donnelley CompanyCataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: International Monetary Fund.Title: Global financial stability report.Other titles: GFSR | World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2002- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for March 2002.Subjects: LCSH: Capital market—Statistics—Periodicals. | International finance—Forecasting—Periodicals. | Economic stabilization—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HG4523.G557ISBNs: 979-8-40025-770-4 (paper) 979-8-40025-779-7 (ePub) 979-8-40025-771-1 (web PDF)Disclaimer: The Global Financial Stability Report is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report draws out the financial ramifications of economic issues highlighted in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on April 3, 2024. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2024. Global Financial Stability Report: The Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks. Washington, DC, April.Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publications ServicesPO Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgelibrary.IMF.org Assumptions and Conventions viFurther Information viiPreface viiiForeword ixExecutive Summary xiIMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2024 xviChapter 1 Financial Fragilities along the Last Mile of Disinflation 1 Chapter 1 at a Glance 1 Introduction 1 Monetary Policy and Financial Market Developments 3 Growth-at-Risk Forecasts 10 Salient Near-Term Risks 11 Medium-Term Vulnerabilities 21 Policy Recommendations 41 Box 1.1. Approval of Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products Expands the 46 Investor Base Box 1.2. Intertemporal Risk Trade-Offs to US Growth under Alternative Scenarios of 47 Credit Growth Box 1.3. Are Regional Banks in the United States “Out of the Woods”? 49 References 51Chapter 2 The Rise and Risks of Private Credit 53 Chapter 2 at a Glance 53 How Private Credit Started and Has Grown 54 How Private Credit Could Threaten Financial Stability 56 Characteristics of Private Credit Borrowers 57 Liquidity Risks of Private Credit Funds 61 Leverage in Private Credit 63 Private Credit Valuations 64 Interconnectedness 67 Policy Recommendations 72 Box 2.1. Small But Growing Private Credit Funds in Asia 75 References 76Chapter 3 Cyber Risk: A Growing Concern for Macrofinancial Stability 77 Chapter 3 at a Glance 77 Introduction 77 Transmission of Cyber Risks to Macrofinancial Stability 81 Losses to Firms from Cyber Incidents 83 Drivers of Cyber Incidents 85 The Cyber Threat Landscape in the Financial Sector 86 Cybersecurity Preparedness across Countries 91 Conclusion and Policy Recommendations 94 Box 3.1. Cyber Risk for Financial Market Infrastructures 96 Box 3.2. Cyber Risk and Crypto Assets 98 References 100CONTENTSInternational Monetary Fund | April 2024iii GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT: ThE LAST MILE: FINANCIAL VuLNERABILITIES ANd RISkSivInternational Monetary Fund | April 2024Tables Table 2.1. Key Concepts and Definitions 54 Table 2.2. Characteristics of Leverage in Private Credit Vehicles 64Figures Figure ES.1. Financial Conditions Indexes xi Figure ES.2. Emerging Markets Portfolio Flow Tracking Local Currency xi Bonds and Equities Figure ES.3. Global Growth-at-Risk xi Figure ES.4. Bank CRE Exposures xii Figure ES.5. Chinese Stock Markets under Pressure xii Figure ES.6. Corporate Interest Rates Set to Go Up xii Figure ES.7. Private Credit Growth xiii Figure ES.8. Total Assets of Banks Flagged by