固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 This morning, there were two-way flows on LGFV names. In Asia IGspace,HAOHUAs recovered 3-5bps and HYUELEs recovered 5bps. NOMURA andAustralian long-end Ts2 widened 2-3bps. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk CWAHK:FV of the new CWAHK 30 at 6%. We saw buyers on CWAHK 26amid the new issue, which was 0.1pt higher this morning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852)3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Export resilience strengthens China’s position in trade war.CMBI revises the forecast for the export growth for 2025 from 3% to 4.5%;maintain the forecast for the 2025 import growth at 1.5%. USD/RMB ratesmay appreciate from the current 7.13 to 7.1 by year end and 7.05 by end of2026. See the comments from CMBI economic research below. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,Asia IG space widened 3-7bps across the boardas US-Chinatension escalated. We saw better selling on TW lifers FUBON 35/SHIKON35, China TMTs BABA/MEITUA,Japanese banks fixed bonds and FRNs,and Southeast Asian names SIASP/OCBCSP 35/TOPTB/CBKIN/HDFCB.FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 0.1pt lower. See our comments on FAEACOyesterday.NWDEVLs/LIFUNGs/FOSUNI 26-29s leaked 0.2-0.7pt. CWAHK4.85 05/18/26 was 0.1pt lower. See comments below on CWAHK’s proposed5NC3 blue bonds. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29s were down by 0.4-0.6pt following the chairman’s resignation. We see limited impact as the newchairman is also a member of senior management in SZ Metro. FTLNHD26/FUTLAN 28 were 0.2-0.4pt lower. On the other hand, we saw betterbuying on some other SOE property names amid COGO’s early redemptionplan of USD512mn COGO 2.45 02/09/26. COGO 26/GRNLGR 28-31s were0.1-0.3pt higher. In Southeast Asia, VLLPM 27-29s edged up 0.5-1.2pts.VEDLN 28-33s/GLPSPs were down by 0.2-1.2pts. SMCGL Perps were 0.1-0.2pt lower. Long-end Yankee AT1s were weaker in themorning with AMsselling, but recovered a touch higher into the London session as dip-buyingdemand emerged from RMs and prop desks. In LGFV space, activities picked up in light of the return of new CNH issuesZHHFGR 28/JDZHSI 28/ZBTECH 28. The space hadan overall stablesession amid moderate two-way flows among RMs and tactical investors. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+1.56%), Dow (+1.29%) and Nasdaq (+2.21%) were higher on Monday. US bond market wasclosedon Monday for Columbus Day.UST yield was unchanged on Monday.2/5/10/30 yield was at3.52%/3.65%/4.05%/4.63%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 CWAHK:FV of the new CWAHK 30 at 6% China Water Affairs (CWAHK) proposes to issue 5NC3 USD senior blue bond (Ba1/BB+/-).We view the FV ofthe new CWAHK 30 at 6% in view of the valuations of its CWAHK 26 and its peers HONGQIs, as well asadjusted for rating and tenor differential.See Table 1.The issuance size should be capped at its remainingoffshore-issuance quota of USD200mn. The net proceeds will be used to repay offshore debt including CWAHK 4.85 05/18/26 (callable at 101.213 onor after 18 May’25) , and to finance eligible greenprojects, particularly water supply projects, in accordancewith the Green & Blue Finance Framework. The new CWAHK 30 will have a CoC put at 101, exercisable within30 days after a change of control that results in a ratings decline. CWAHK is a holding company that conducts the significant majority of its operations through PRC subsidiaries.Its equity interests in those PRC subsidiaries are held through certain subsidiary guarantors that do not havematerial operations and through certain other non-guarantor subsidiaries. The new CWAHK 30 will beguaranteed by certain non-PRC-incorporated subsidiary guarantors that do not have material operations. CWAHK is one of the largest water supply companies in China with 1.5bn ton water sold to 8.2mn customeraccounts in FY25 (ended Mar).It focuses on water supply (mainly city water supply) and sewage treatmentwhich accounted for c70% and c13% of its revenue in FY25, respectively. CWAHK generates stable cash flowfrom exclusive concession rights to operate itswater supply business in 58 districts, counties, and county-levelcities including Beijing, Chongqing, Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Tianjin, etc. CWAHK serves residential,industrial, and other end users, with potential coverage of over 30mn people in China. CWAHK generated HKD11.7bn of revenue and HKD3.4bn of operating cash flow, and we estimate free cashflow of HKD40mn. As of Mar’25, total debt was HKD25.6bn. Its operating performance in FY25 weakened withrevenueand EBIT down c9%,reflecting the slower installation,maintenance and construction works.Consequently, coverage ratios weakened. In FY25, its EBITDA/int and net debt/EBITDA ratios were 3.1x and4.3x, compared with 3.6x and 3.9x In FY24, respectively.We take some comfort that the risk of collection islargely manageable. CWAHK collects tariff on a monthly basis and tariff accounts