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财政规则和财政委员会：疫情以来的最新趋势和修订

2025-10-03 国际货币基金组织程思齐Sophie

本文探讨了全球财政规则和财政委员会的演变趋势，重点关注自疫情以来的发展。基于IMF最新更新的财政规则和财政委员会数据库，该研究记录了新兴市场和 developing economies 财政规则的日益普及，并分析了规则设计的改进以及财政委员会在提供监督方面日益增长的作用。尽管取得了这些进展，但合规性仍然参差不齐，存在普遍且持续的财政规则赤字和债务规则限制偏差。本文引入了新的指标来量化财政规则的整体强度和财政委员会的制度质量，揭示了显著的跨国差异以及规则强度与财政纪律之间的正相关关系。

核心观点与关键数据：

财政规则的采用和设计：自疫情以来，122 个经济体至少采用了一个人数财政规则，其中三分之二的国家对其进行了修订。债务规则和预算平衡规则是最常见的，分别被超过 100 个国家采用。支出规则的使用正在增加，而收入规则则较少使用。近三分之二的国家将财政规则立法化，超过三分之二的规则包含逃脱条款，约 40% 的规则包含纠正机制。
财政委员会的兴起：截至 2024 年底，全球已有 54 个财政委员会，是 2010 年的两倍多。与财政规则的采用类似，先进经济体率先建立财政委员会，但过去十年中，新兴市场经济的财政委员会数量增长迅速。
财政规则强度指数：该研究构建了一个财政规则强度指数，综合考虑了规则的简单性、灵活性、可执行性和法律基础等因素。该指数显示，所有收入组别国家的规则强度总体上有所提高，但跨国差异很大。先进经济体的指数得分最高，但新兴市场和低收入 developing economies 的指数得分也在稳步上升。
财政委员会的评估：该研究构建了一个财政委员会指数，衡量其是否符合 OECD 指南中强调的理想属性。该指数显示，在所有维度上，先进经济体的财政委员会得分普遍高于新兴市场和低收入 developing economies。
合规性问题：尽管财政规则得到了广泛采用，但合规性仍然参差不齐。在 2009-2019 年期间，约 60% 的先进经济体和约 40% 的新兴市场和低收入 developing economies 未能遵守债务规则。在 2020 年，超过 80% 的采用预算平衡规则的国家其赤字超过了规定的上限。五年后，约 40% 的先进经济体和 60% 的新兴市场和低收入 developing economies 的财政赤字仍然超过了财政规则限制。
偏离的持续性：研究发现，赤字和债务偏离财政规则限制具有持续性。例如，一个国家如果超过赤字规则限制 1.9 个百分点的 GDP，则大约需要四到五年才能收敛到其平均偏离水平。债务规则的偏离比赤字规则的偏离更具持续性。

研究结论：

尽管财政规则和财政委员会的采用和设计有所改进，但大规模且持续的偏离财政规则限制仍然普遍存在。这些偏离不仅是由近期经济冲击造成的，也是由于财政规则设计中的缺陷造成的。研究强调，建立强有力的财政规则和有效的财政委员会对于确保这些框架在不断变化的经济环境中保持相关性和弹性至关重要。

Fiscal Rules and FiscalCouncils: Recent Trends and Revisionssince the Pandemic Virginia Alonso, Clara Arroyo, Ozlem Aydin, VybhaviBalasundharam, Hamid R. Davoodi, Gabriel Hegab, W. RaphaelLam, Anh Minh Nguyen, Natalia Salazar Ferro, Galen Sher,Alexandra Solovyeva, and Nino Tchelishvili WP/25/198 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025OCT IMF Working PaperFiscal Affairs Department Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Revisions since the Pandemic Prepared by Virginia Alonso, Clara Arroyo, Ozlem Aydin, Vybhavi Balasundharam, Hamid R. Davoodi,Gabriel Hegab, W. Raphael Lam, Anh Minh Nguyen, Natalia Salazar Ferro, Galen Sher, AlexandraSolovyeva, and Nino Tchelishvili* Authorized for distribution by Davide FurceriOctober 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper examines the evolving landscape of fiscal rules and fiscal councils worldwide,focusing on developments since the pandemic. Drawing on the latest updates to the IMF’s Fiscal Rules andFiscal Councils databases—which cover more than 120 economies and 54 fiscal councils—it documents theincreasing adoption of fiscal rules, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies. The analysishighlights improvements in the legal foundations and flexibility of fiscal rules, along with a growing role foreffective fiscal councils in providing oversight. Despite these advancements, compliance remains uneven, withwidespread and persistent deviations from deficit and debt rule limits. The paper introduces new indices toquantify the overall strength of fiscal rules and the institutional quality of fiscal councils, revealing significantcross-country variation and a positive correlation between the strength of rules and fiscal discipline. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Alonso, V., C. Arroyo, O. Aydin, V. Balasundharam, H.R. Davoodi, G. Hegab,A.M. Nguyen, N. Salazar Ferro, G. Sher, A. Solovyeva, and N. Tchelishvili. 2025. “Fiscal Rules and FiscalCouncils: Recent Trends and Revisions since the Pandemic”, IMF Working Paper No.25/198, InternationalMonetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils:Recent Trends and Revisionssince the Pandemic Prepared by Virginia Alonso, Clara Arroyo, Ozlem Aydin, VybhaviBalasundharam, Hamid R. Davoodi, Gabriel Hegab, W. Raphael Lam, AnhMinh Nguyen, Natalia Salazar Ferro, Galen Sher, Alexandra Solovyeva,and Nino Tchelishvili1 Contents A.Evolving design features of fiscal rules...............................................................................................7Statutory basis.........................................................................................................................................7Escape clause provisions ........................................................................................................................8Correction mechanism...........................................................................................................................10Monitoring of fiscal rules........................................................................................................................11Linkages of fiscal rules with medium-term fiscal frameworks (MTFFs) .................................................11B.Measuring the ‘Strength’ of Fiscal Rules ..........................................................................................12C.Compliance with Fiscal Rules ...........................................................................................................17D.Revisions of Fiscal Rules After the Pandemic ..................................................................................19E.Changing Institutional Features of Fiscal Councils ...........................................................................20Benchmarking fiscal councils against desirable principles ....................................................................21 A.What is considered a fiscal rule in this paper and in the dataset? ....................................................29B.Types of fiscal rules ..........................................................................................................................29C.Other characteristics of fiscal rules ...................................................................................................30D.What is considered a fiscal council in this paper and in the dataset?...............................................31E.Key characteristics of a fiscal council ............

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