2025年第二季度航空业利润保持稳定

Airline EconomicState Of The Industry: 2Q 2025 Analysis By Tom Stalnaker, Khalid Usman, Grant Alport,Andy Buchanan, and Aaron Taylor A business of Marsh McLennan CONTENT 1Introduction 2Global overview 3Airline performance by regionNorth America (US/Canada)EuropeLatin AmericaAsia/PacificAfrica/Middle East/India 4Special topic: Recent demand trends in the US market 5Appendix WELCOME TO THE NEWAIRLINE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS REPORT What is the Airline Economic Analysisand what is changing? •The Airline Economic Analysis (AEA)is Oliver Wyman’s report on the financialstate of the airline industry •We have published the AEA annuallyfor the past 15 years as a written report,heavily focused on the US sector•We are transitioning to a quarterly releasewith a more global focus and a lighter,more visually driven style•The AEA will continue to include traditionalin-depth analysis including US industryfinancial deep dives and global capacitytrends•We will also continue to publish featureson emerging trends and their implicationsfor the industry and its ecosystem We will publish quarterly reports and other updates on oliverwyman.com, so be sure to check back regularly NOTES ON APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY Results for each region are presented in three sections, using the following approach: FORWARDSECOND QUARTER 2025 INDUSTRY REVIEW In this installment (subscribe here), we reviewsecond quarter 2025 results for the airlineindustry worldwide: Operatingmargin 2Q 2025For carriers inglobal index •Worldwide nominal GDP grew 2.9% year-over-year, with most regional economiesgrowing during the second quartercompared to the beginning of 2025•The airline industry1grew capacityglobally 5.1%, realized 7.7% revenue growth,and produced an operating margin of 9.9%•Operating costs increased 2.5% (CASM),slightly higher than revenue growth of 2.4%(RASM)•As the world experiences economic andtrade uncertainty, we more closely examinerecent trends across markets Insufficient Data Q2 year-over-yearFor carriersin global index Very best,Tom StalnakerKhalid UsmanGrant AlportAndy BuchananAaron Taylor INDUSTRY FINANCIAL RESULTS: GLOBAL AIRLINE INDEX10% MARGIN ON 5% CAPACITY GROWTH; CASM GROWTH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN RASM Airlines in our worldwide index producedan operating margin of 9.9%, down slightlyfrom second quarter 2024. Expense growthslightly outpaced revenue growth, resulting inslightly lower margin. •All regions in our index were profitable, andsaw YOY declines in margin •Americas saw the largest margin decline,while Europe saw the largest increase •Americas had the largest RASM declines,with Europe considerably outpacing otherregions •Latin America saw CASM decline YOY whileEurope saw the largest CASM increase; otherregions remained relatively flat in CASM YOY •Europe had the highest margin, RASM, andCASM increases—largely driven by theincreased EUR/USD exchange rate over thelast year INDUSTRY UNIT ECONOMIC DRIVERS: GLOBAL AIRLINE INDEXNORTH AND LATIN AMERICA SAW RASM GROWTH LOWER THAN CASM GROWTH Unit revenue (RASM) growthYear-over-year growth in %, bubble size denotes capacity Year-over-year growth in %, bubble size denotes capacity MACRO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS: WORLDWIDEREVENUE GROWTH AND DECLINING FUEL COST, WITH POSITIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global GDP grew by about 3% and revenuegrew by 7.7% against a backdrop of growingconsumer spending and lower fuel cost. •Worldwide, real GDP grew 2.9% YOY •Consumer spending and disposable incomeincreased in general and across all regions–Latin America experienced the lowestgrowth at about 1% •Average cost per gallon of jet fueldropped 13% and is nearing $2 per gallon •The moderate decline in jet fuel costcontinues to mask other cost growth atworldwide airlines GLOBAL OPERATING MARGINS BY AIRLINEGLOBAL MARGIN AT 10%; SIMILAR GROWTH ACROSS REGIONS 03 airlineperformanceby region North America Overview of regional trends forUS/Canada INDUSTRY FINANCIAL RESULTS: NORTH AMERICA INDEXCAPACITY GROWTH AND DECREASED DEMAND CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER PROFITABILITY North America profit dropped by nearly 15% ascost grew faster than revenue, which failed tokeep pace with capacity. •Revenue growth of 1.6% was outpaced bycost growth of 3.5%•Cost growth was similar to capacity growthresulting in slight CASM increase (+0.2%)•CASM increased despite 13% reduction infuel costs•Revenue grew at about half the rate ofcapacity resulting in a 1.7% RASM decline•As capacity growth outpaced demand,average fares decreased by 6.2%•International visitation to the US continuedto be negative year-over-year, especially invisitation from Latin America and theCaribbean FINANCIAL RESULTS BY BUSINESS MODEL: NORTH AMERICA INDEXFSC AND LCC MAINTAIN PROFITABILITY DESPITE DECREASED MARGINS Full-service carriers continued to producehigher margins than lower-cost carriers, andhad smaller margin declines as well. •Operating margin was 10.4% for FSCs,considerably high compared to 1.9% forFSCs, though both decreased YOY