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阿富汗人口外流：区域宏观经济影响和政策挑战（英）

文化传媒2025-09-01国际货币基金组织风***

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阿富汗流亡：区域宏观经济影响与政策挑战

摘要

阿富汗历经数十年的战争和政治动荡，导致大规模的流离失所（难民和国内流离失所者）和移民潮。本文记录了阿富汗流离失所和移民危机的关键特征事实，利用国际货币基金组织的FSGM模型从区域角度评估其宏观经济影响，并考虑了阿富汗和接收国（伊朗和巴基斯坦）所面临的政策挑战。文章强调了需要一个全面和协调的方法来实现一个可持续的解决方案。

主要发现

阿富汗流离失所和移民趋势：2023年，阿富汗难民、国内流离失所者（IDP）和外迁人口总数超过2000万，几乎占全国总人口的50%。与前几次危机不同，国内流离失所者的数量激增，这得益于2021年8月塔利班接管后出现的政治、社会和经济挑战，以及与气候变化相关的灾害。经济外迁人口——据估计2023年有780万——达到总人口20%时，这既是人口损失（除难民外），也对经济产生重大负面影响。
驱动因素：冲突导致的暴力和不安全局面历来是阿富汗流离失所和移民的主要驱动力。塔利班的卷土重来以及与政府军的冲突，为平民创造了一个危险的环境。此外，经济形势恶化、社会政治环境体制的恶化以及自然灾害和气候变化的影响也加剧了阿富汗的流离失所和移民危机。
接收国影响：伊朗、巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯一直是三大主要接收国，占海外阿富汗人总数的92%。然而，这些国家阿富汗人口的构成差异显著。伊朗和巴基斯坦的阿富汗难民和移民涌入引发了反弹，部分原因是经济压力——对公共服务和基础设施造成进一步的压力，并对当地劳动力市场造成干扰。
宏观经济影响：对于阿富汗而言，流离失所人口和移民对劳动力市场、经济活动、公共财政和汇款有直接的经济影响。难民和移民减少总人口，导致劳动力萎缩，并导致产出和财政收入的降低。对于伊朗和巴基斯坦而言，阿富汗难民和移民影响劳动力市场、经济活动和公共财政。这些难民和移民可以融入这两个国家的劳动力市场，但也带来财政负担。
FSGM模型分析：仿真分析比较了不同的情景以确定最有效的政策回应。主要情景包括：
- 情景1：伊朗和巴基斯坦加速驱逐阿富汗难民：显示伊朗和巴基斯坦与基线相比有普遍改善，但阿富汗的中期人口比基准情景高，且人均实际国内生产总值和实际工资有所下降。
- 情景2：阿富汗改革：阿富汗通过实施旨在减少人口流失（难民和移民）及内部流离失所的改革所能实现的巨大经济效益。
- 情景3：伊朗和巴基斯坦的难民改革：伊朗和巴基斯坦实施措施，以促进阿富汗难民更好地融入当地劳动力市场，对阿富汗的汇款增加，人均实际国内生产总值增长。
- 情景4：阿富汗、伊朗和巴基斯坦的改革：阿富汗和伊朗及巴基斯坦的改革相辅相成，在国际支持下创造了互利共赢的局面。

研究结论

阿富汗流离失所和移民危机已经达到前所未有的规模，对阿富汗和邻国都产生了深远的经济影响。
隔离措施——例如强制遣返——可能为东道国带来财政和劳动力市场的缓解，但可能进一步削弱阿富汗本已脆弱的经济。
同时努力减少阿富汗的流离失所驱动因素，以及改善东道国难民的融入，可以产生互利的结果，尤其是在有充足的国际支持时。
持久解决方案需要人道主义响应和长期战略，以应对阿富汗流离失所和移民危机的根本原因，并促进包容性区域增长。

Afghan Exodus:Regional Macroeconomic Rhea Gupta,Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez,Li Zeng Under the guidance ofAbdullah AlHassan IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are WP/25/176 2025SEP IMF Working Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Prepared byRhea Gupta,Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez, Li Zeng* Under the guidance of Abdullah AlHassan Authorized for distribution by Zeine Zeidane IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:Afghanistan has endured decades of war and political turmoil, leading to repeated waves ofdisplacement (refugees and internally displaced persons) and emigration. This paper documents key stylizedfacts of the Afghan displacement and emigration crisis, assesses its macroeconomic impacts from a regionalperspective using the IMF’s FSGM model, and considerspolicy challenges facing both Afghanistan and host RECOMMENDED CITATION:Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez, Li Zeng. 2025. "Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges." IMF Working Paper 25/176. WORKING PAPERS Afghan Exodus: RegionalMacroeconomic Implicationsand Prepared byRhea Gupta,Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, PedroRodriguez, Li Zeng Under the guidance of Abdullah AlHassan Contents A.Drivers for displacement and emigration............................................................................................8B.Afghan refugee and emigrant trends................................................................................................10C.Demographics of Afghan refugees and emigrants............................................................................12 A.Macroeconomic channels.................................................................................................................16B.Scenario analysis..............................................................................................................................17 Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................................24 References.........................................................................................................................................................37 BOXES FIGURES Figure 1. Largest Refugee Crises Since 1970 by Peak Number.....................................................................4Figure 2. Evolution of Afghan Refugees, Emigrants, and IDPs......................................................................4Figure 3. Internally Displaced Persons, Refugees, and Labor Migrants.......................................................7Figure 4. Refugees by Country of Origin..........................................................................................................7Figure 5. Internally Displaced Persons.............................................................................................................8Figure 6. Labor Migrants by Country................................................................................................................8Figure 7. Main Drivers for Afghanistan’s Displacement and Emigration Crisis...........................................8Figure 8. Conflict Intensity in Select Countries...............................................................................................9Figure 9. Afghanistan: Fiscal Position............................................................................................................10Figure 10. Afghanistan: Real GDP Growth and Remittances Received.......................................................10Figure 11. Exposure vs Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change....................................................................10Figure 12. Afghanistan: Internally Displaced Persons..................................................................................10 Figure 16. Gender Ratio of Afghan Refugees.................................................................................................12Figure 17. Gender Ratio of Labor Migrants....................................................................................................12Figure 18. Age Composition of Afghanistan Refugees.................................................................................13Figure 19. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Afghan Returnees from Iran and Pakistan.............................15Figure 20. Macroeconomic Implications of Afghan Refugees, IDPs, and Economic Migrants.................17Figure 21. Scenario 1: Faster Forced Repatriation of Afghan Refugees by Iran and Pakistan.................19Figure 22. Scenario 2: Afghanistan Refor

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