加快东盟可再生能源增长挑战和政策建议（英）2025

AcceleratingRenewables Growth Challenges and policy suggestions INTERNATIONAL ENERGY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy, IEAMember IEAAssociation AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFrance ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgypt This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of The EuropeanCommission also Abstract Eight of the 11 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) have adopted net zero emissions targets, and recent national energyplans outline substantially higher ambitions for renewable capacity. Achieving This report examines the key challenges hindering a faster capacity deploymentof renewable power in ASEAN and outlines potential policy solutions informed bysuccessful international experience. It also provides an assessment of renewable-energy auction design options, an increasingly important procurement mechanism Acknowledgements, contributors This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in the Directorate ofEnergy Markets and Security. The lead authors of the report were Vasilios PaoloFrankl,Head of the Renewable Energy Division,provided strategicguidance and input to this work. Simon Rolland, Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, and This work benefited from review and comments from the ASEAN Centre for The authors would also like to thank Romy de Courtay for skilfully editing the draft, Introduction Context Electricity demand in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) hastripled over the past two decades, driven by rapid economic growth, urbanisation,industrial expansion and rising living standards. Most countries have recordedannual electricity generation growth of more than 5% since 2000. Cambodia, Lao Renewable energy had significantly expanded in recent years, led by solar PV,whose installed capacity has increased sixfold since 2018 to nearly 35 GW. Still,hydropower continues to dominate renewable generation. Overall, renewablesaccounted for only 25% of ASEAN’s total electricity supply in 2024. Variable ASEAN possesses vast renewable-energy resources, with around 20 terawatts oftechnical solar and wind potential – more than 55 times its current electricitygeneration capacity. With the sharp decline in the global cost of these technologiesin recent years, tapping even a small share of this potential could significantly Considering the untapped potential and benefits, several ASEAN countries haveannouncedmore ambitious energy transition goals.Eight of the region’s11 member states have set net zero emissions targets. Recent national plansincludesignificantly higher objectives for renewable capacity.For example,Indonesia’s new Electricity Supply Business Plan 2025-2034 plans major solarandwind additions.Malaysia aims for 70%renewable capacity by 2050. Regional initiatives also play a growing role in shaping ASEAN’s energy transition.The ASEAN Vision 2045 and associated regional targets strongly emphasiseexpanding renewable energy and strengthening system integration to ensure itscost-effective and secure deployment. Under the ASEAN Plan of Action on Energy SeveralASEAN member states have already introduced important policymeasuresto accelerate renewable deployment.These include competitiveauctionsin Malaysia,the Philippines and Thailand;direct power purchaseagreements (PPAs) in Singapore and Viet Nam; and net-metering schemes in Objective of this paper This paper identifies the most pressing challenges that continue to hamper fastercapacity deployment of renewable power across many ASEAN member states. Itaims to provide policymakers with potential policy solutions and priorities, drawing The paper groups the challenges into three broad categories: Challenges related to elevated investment risk and higher renewable generationcosts:lack of implementation details in national plansinsufficientpolicy support to ensure long-term revenues and de-risk Challenges related to power system and fossil fuel PPAs inflexibility: inflexible PPAs with conventional generatorslack of remuneration for flexibility and ancillary servicesinsufficient incentives for distributed solar PV development. Challenges in permitting, community engagement and data availability: lengthy and complicated permitting procedureslimited engagement with local communitieslimited public data and high predevelopment risks for geothermal projects The report also explores key design options for competitive auctions, which arethe dominant procurement mechanism for renewables globally and implementedacross ASEAN. The design options presented are relevant to both ASEAN The presence and types of challenges vary significantly across ASEAN countries.They reflect differences in power-market design, the generation mix, syste