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阿富汗人口外流：区域宏观经济影响和政策挑战

2025-09-05 国际货币基金组织 Marco.M

阿富汗的 displacement and emigration crisis has reached an unprecedented scale, with far-reaching economic ramifications for both Afghanistan and neighboring countries. The combined total of refugees, IDPs, and economic migrants now accounts for nearly half of Afghanistan’s population. This mass movement of people has created a dual challenge: an acute humanitariansituation and a structural macroeconomic shock.

For Afghanistan, the loss of population and internal displacement have led to reduced output and potential growth—partly due to “brain drain”—while placing additional strain on already limited fiscal resources. Although remittances from abroad have provided some relief, the negative economic consequences are likely to persist and deepen unless the underlying causes of displacement and emigration are addressed.

For host countries, particularly Iran and Pakistan, the influx of Afghan refugees and migrants has brought both opportunities and pressures. On one hand, Afghan labor can contribute to higher output; on the other hand, large and sustained inflows can depress wages, exacerbate local labor market competition, and strain public services and infrastructure, especially in regions with high concentrations of Afghan refugees and economic migrants.

Simulation results using the IMF’s FSGM highlight the importance of coordinated strategies. Isolated measures—such as forced repatriation—may bring fiscal and labor market relief for host countries but can further undermine Afghanistan’s already fragile economy. In contrast, simultaneous efforts to reduce displacement drivers in Afghanistan and to improve refugee integration in host countries can generate mutually beneficial outcomes, especially when there is adequate international support. Such findings underscore that durable solutions need both humanitarian responses and long-term strategies to tackle the root causes of the Afghan displacement and emigration crisis, as well as promote inclusive regional growth.

Afghan Exodus:Regional MacroeconomicImplicationsand PolicyChallenges Rhea Gupta,Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez,Li Zeng Under the guidance ofAbdullah AlHassan IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management. WP/25/176 2025SEP IMF Working Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Afghan Exodus:Regional Macroeconomic Implicationsand Policy Challenges Prepared byRhea Gupta,Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez, Li Zeng* Under the guidance of Abdullah AlHassan Authorized for distribution by Zeine ZeidaneSeptember 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Afghanistan has endured decades of war and political turmoil, leading to repeated waves ofdisplacement (refugees and internally displaced persons) and emigration. This paper documents key stylizedfacts of the Afghan displacement and emigration crisis, assesses its macroeconomic impacts from a regionalperspective using the IMF’s FSGM model, and considerspolicy challenges facing both Afghanistan and hostcountries (Iran and Pakistan). It underscores the need for a holistic and coordinated approach to achieve adurable solution. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez, Li Zeng. 2025. "Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges." IMF Working Paper 25/176.Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Afghan Exodus: RegionalMacroeconomic ImplicationsandPolicy Challenges Prepared byRhea Gupta,Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, PedroRodriguez, Li Zeng Under the guidance of Abdullah AlHassan Contents Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................4 A.Drivers for displacement and emigration............................................................................................8B.Afghan refugee and emigrant trends................................................................................................10C.Demographics of Afghan refugees and emigrants............................................................................12D.Forced Repatriation of Afghans by Iran and Pakistan......................................................................13 Macroeconomic Implications...........................................................................................................................16 A.Macroeconomic channels.................................................................................................................16B.Scenario analysis..............................................................................................................................17 Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................................24 Annex I. Displaced Afghans in Iran and Pakistan..........................................................................................25 Annex II. FSGM Simulation Analysis...............................................................................................................28 Annex III. International Assistance for Afghan Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons....................36 References.........................................................................................................................................................37 BOXES Box 1. The Syrian and VenezuelanDisplacement andMigrationCrises: Impact on and Response ofAffected Countries............................................................................................................................................14 FIGURES Figure 1. Largest Refugee Crises Since 1970 by Peak Number.....................................................................4Figure 2. Evolution of Afghan Refugees, Emigrants, and IDPs......................................................................4Figure 3. Internally Displaced Persons, Refugees, and Labor Migrants.......................................................7Figure 4. Refugees by Country of Origin..........................................................................................................7Figure 5. Internally Displaced Persons.............................................................................................................8Figure 6. Labor Migrants by Country.........................................................................................

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