关税和政策不确定性的宏观经济影响

Macroeconomic impact of tariffs andpolicy uncertainty Emanuel Kohlscheen,Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, Dora Xiaand Fabrizio Zampolli BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to timeby other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and aretechnical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the viewsof the BIS. The authors are grateful to Julian Caballero, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Daniel Rees, Hyun SongShin, Frank Smets and Christian Upper for helpful comments, Hongyan Zhao for sharing trade modelestimates, Adam Cap and Yui Ching Li for excellent analysis and research assistance, and to Nicola Faesslerfor administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). ©Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced ortranslated provided the source is stated. Macroeconomic impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty Key takeaways •Tariffs affect economies most directly through trade volume and prices. Tariffs lower output growtheverywhere, though the magnitude varies by country and scenario. They also tend to raise inflation,most notably in the imposing countries.•Tariffs have indirect effects, including exchange rate shifts, supply chain disruptions, trade diversion andheightened uncertainty. These could worsen growth and inflation effects as well as the policy trade-offscentral banks face.•If it proves persistent, trade policy uncertainty could depress domestic demand and put global growth atrisk. The global economy has until recently shown remarkable resilience in the face of tariff hikes and policyuncertainty. Global economic activity held up through the first half of the year, supported by a front-loading of trade, a more gradual increase in effective tariff rates than anticipated in April and easy financialconditions. This unexpected strength has led some forecasters to upgrade their growth outlooks fromearlier pessimistic projections (eg see the IMF’s July projection (IMF (2025)). However, higher tariffs could eventually weigh on global growth. Even though some countries havereached bilateral trade deals, average US tariffs are likely to settle at levels unprecedented in the modernera. Indeed, US tariff revenues had already quadrupled by July 2025 (Graph 1.A). The increased trade costsare starting to affect corporate earnings in some manufacturing sectors. Recent US economic data – suchas weaker private spending, persistent inflation and softening labour market performance – indicateemerging economic weakness. Subdued consumer confidence across advanced (AEs) and emergingmarket economies (EMEs), coupled with weak investment due to lingering uncertainty, could further weighon domestic demand going forward. The inflationary effects of tariffs could also be significant, albeit uneven across countries due to thelargely unilateral nature of these measures. In the United States, which imposed the tariffs, higher importprices are likely to increase price pressures. For other countries, the inflationary implications are less clearcut. On the one hand, lower export demand, trade diversion and currency appreciation can reduceinflation. On the other hand, if tariffs disrupt supply chains, higher inflation could materialise globally. Withthe post-pandemic inflation surge still fresh in memory, inflation expectations could be less well anchoredin this event.1 This Bulletin explores the macroeconomic implications of tariffs, discussing propagation channels andpresenting quantitative estimates of their growth and inflation impacts. It also examines the broadereffects of tariffs and potential amplification mechanisms, from prolonged trade policy uncertainty tofinancial vulnerabilities. Macroeconomic implications of tariffs: channels and impacts Tariffs affect growth and inflation most directly through trade. For tariff-imposing countries, tariffs raiseimport prices, thereby depressing real income and demand and resulting in an adverse supply orstagflationary shock. The relative burden of adjustment on output and inflation depends on firms’ marginresponses and households’ consumption price elasticity, which in turn are shaped by factors such asmarket power and substitutability between goods. For countries subject to tariffs, the dominant effect maybe lower export demand from the imposing countries, which by itself would lead to lower growth andinflation. Trade dependence determines the domestic impact, while globally, trade linkages and supplychains tend to propagate stagflationary effects. Sources: Kalemli-Özcan et al (2025); McKibbin et al (2024); Rodíguez-Clare et al (2025); Zhao (forthcoming); IMF; Budget Lab at Yale; USDepartment of the Treasury; LSEG Datastream; BIS. Trade models offer some insights into the quantitative imp