黑色建材日报：成材持续累库，钢价震荡运行

玻璃纯碱：库存有所去化，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡运行。截至收盘，主力2601合约涨幅0.51%。现货方面，据隆众数据显示：本周浮法玻璃企业开工率76.01%，环比上涨0.1%；厂家库存6158.3万重箱，环比减少146.7万重箱。供需与逻辑：当前厂库高位小幅波动，玻璃供需矛盾依旧存在。短期盘面升水持续压制价格，谨慎对待节前的价格波动，后期关注玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行。截至收盘，主力2601合约涨幅1.26%。现货方面，据隆众数据显示：纯碱产能利用率87.29%，环比上涨1.07%；产量76.11万吨，环比上涨0.93万吨，库存179.75万吨，环比下跌2.46万吨。供需与逻辑：纯碱产量维持在高位波动且伴随四季度新增产能落地，叠加目前盘面升水，进一步压制纯碱价格，后期关注新产能投放和下游需求变化 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱纯碱方面：震荡偏弱跨期：无跨品种：无风险宏观及房地产政策、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：钢材持续累库，铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日锰硅期货主力合约收于5838元/吨，较前日下跌16元/吨。现货方面，市场波动不大，观望情绪浓，6517北方市场价格5630-5680元/吨，南方市场价格5650-5700元/吨。供需与逻辑：目前硅锰行业供需仍偏宽松，但产区长时间亏损，锰矿库存处于同期低位，硅锰价格跟随板块波动，后期关注合金企业产量和产区电价变化情况。硅铁方面，昨日硅铁期货主力合约收于5626元/吨，较前日下跌2元/吨。现货端，硅铁市场情绪一般，硅铁主产区72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5200-5300元/吨，75硅铁价格报5800-5950元/吨。 供需与逻辑：本周硅铁厂库回升至高位，压制硅铁价格。目前硅铁行业供需仍偏宽松，但产区长时间亏损，价格处于相对低位，价格跟随板块波动，后期关注产区利润和产区电价变化情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡硅铁方面：震荡 风险宏观政策、产量变化、港口锰矿库存、下游需求情况等。 图表 图1：上海螺纹现货价格走势图................................................................................................................................................3图2：上海热卷现货价格走势图................................................................................................................................................3图3：螺纹期货主力合约收盘价走势图....................................................................................................................................3图4：热卷期货主力合约收盘价走势图....................................................................................................................................3图5：上海螺纹主力合约基差走势图........................................................................................................................................3图6：上海热卷主力合约基差走势图........................................................................................................................................3图7：唐山生铁即时成本............................................................................................................................................................4图8：江苏生铁即时成本............................................................................................................................................................4图9：螺纹华北唐山毛利润........................................................................................................................................................4图10：螺纹华东江苏毛利润......................................................................................................................................................4图11：螺纹盘面近月利润..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：螺纹盘面远月利润..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：热卷华北唐山利润..........................................................................................................................................................5图14：热卷华东江苏利润..........................................................................................................................................................5图15：热卷盘面近月利润..........................................................................................................................................................5图16：热卷盘面远月利润..........................................................................................................................................................5图17：青岛港PB粉现货价格走势图.........................................................................................................................................5图18：青岛港超特现货价格走势图..........................................................................................................................................5图19：铁矿石期货主力合约走势图..........................................................................................................................................6图20：铁矿石主力合约最小基差走势图..................................................................................................................................6图21：青岛港超特主力合约基差走势图..................................................................................................................................6图22：青岛港PB粉主力合约基差走势图.................................................................................................................................6图23：港口现货成交7日移动平均............................................................................................................................................6图24：255家钢厂废钢到货量....................................................................................................................................................6图25：准一焦炭现货价格走势图..............................................................................................................................................7图26：焦炭期货主力合约走势图..................................................................................................................................