气候变化对拉丁美洲儿童和青年贫困的影响

Title:The impact of climate change on child and youth poverty in Latin America ISBN:978-92-806-5670-1 ECLAC symbol:LC/TS.2025/36 Panama City, August 2025 Cover photo:© UNICEF/UN0364082/Merino/Chile/2020 This publication was produced by the Climate Change, Environment, Energy and DisasterRisk Reduction Section of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Regional Office forLatin America and the Caribbean (LACRO) and the Climate Change Unit of the SustainableDevelopment and Human Settlements Division of the Economic Commission for LatinAmerica and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Author:Rafael Van der Borght Technical coordination:Reis López Rello, Climate Change and Sustainable DevelopmentRegional Advisor (UNICEF), María del Carmen Porras Pérez Guerrero, Climate Change andDisaster Risk Reduction Specialist (UNICEF), José Eduardo Alatorre, Economic Affairs Officer(ECLAC). The United Nations and the countries they represent are not responsible for the content ofany linked websites included in this publication. The opinions expressed in this document arethe responsibility of the author and may not coincide with those of the organizations or thecountries they represent. Authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part must be requested from the UNICEFLACRO Advocacy and Communication Section by emailingcomlac@unicef.orgor to theEconomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Documents andPublications Division,publicaciones.cepal@un.org. Member States and their governmentalinstitutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization. They are requested only tomention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. © United Nations and United Nations Children's Fund, July 2025 All rights reserved. UNICEFLatin America and Caribbean Regional OfficeBuilding 102, Alberto Tejada Street, City of KnowledgePanama, Republic of PanamaPO Box 0843-03045Telephone+507 301 7400www.unicef.org/lacX: @uniceflacFacebook: /uniceflac The impact of climate changeon child and youth poverty inLatin America Contents List of graphicsivList of tablesvAcronymsvExecutive summary11. Introduction52. Conceptual framework and methodology182.1.The relationship between growth and child and youth poverty212.1.1.Theoretical and empirical foundations212.1.2.Growth-poverty elasticity and the evolution of child and youth poverty inLatin America232.2.The impact of climate change on economic growth273.Results293.1.The economic impact of climate change under different scenarios313.2.The impact of climate change on child and youth poverty344. Conclusions and public policy recommendations385.Annex435.1.Data on poverty455.2. Relationship between poverty and economic growth475.3. Modelling the impacts of climate change on the GDP485.4. Inferring the child and youth poverty rate in 203050Endnotes54References58 List of graphics Graph 1. Annual average variation of GDP per capita, Latin America, 1950–20207Graph 2. Poverty rate, Latin America (18 countries), 2001–2022 (%)8Graph 3. Poverty rate by age groups, Latin America (18 countries), 2022 (%)9Graph 4. Evolution of average monthly temperature in LAC, 1901–2020 (°C)10Graph 5. Monthly temperature anomalies by country (average 1991-2020 vs. 1901-1930)(°C)11Graph 6. Number of meteorological disasters (bars) and reported losses (line) in millionUS dollars adjusted to 2022, in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1960-2023(5-year moving average)12Graph 7. Gini index, Latin America (18 countries), 2000-202215Graph 8. Forecasted poverty rate vs. measured poverty rate, Latin America (17 countries),2000-202225Graph 9. Distribution of the proportion of children and young people in the total numberof poor in each country between 2000 and 2020, Latin America (18 countries)26Graph 10. Projected temperature increase in Latin America under three climate scenariosvs. 1961-1990 average (ºC)32Graph 11. Deviation of GDP per capita in Latin America in a changing climate vs. ascenario without climate change, 2030 and 2050 (%)33Graph 12. Children and young people in poverty due to climate change effects in 2030,Latin America (18 countries) (in millions)35Graph 13. Projected increases in the number of children and young people in poverty in2030, Latin America (18 countries) (%)37Graph 14. Discrepancies between international poverty lines of $3.65 and $6.85 per day(PPP) vs. poverty lines used by ECLAC for rural and urban areas of the region's countries46Graph 15. Population projections for Latin America (18 countries) under each scenario50Graph 16. Illustration of the poverty rate projection process under various scenarios51Graph 17. Projected poverty rate by country under various climate scenarios andinequality trajectories, 203052 vThe impact of climate change on child and youth poverty in Latin America List of tables Table 1. Relationship between GDP per capita growth and poverty rate evolution for LatinAmerica, 2000-202024 Table 2. The GDP-Poverty relationship using various data sources47