气候变化对拉丁美洲儿童和青年贫困的影响（英）2025

Title:The impact of climate change on child and youth poverty in Latin America ISBN:978-92-806-5670-1 ECLAC symbol:LC/TS.2025/36 Panama City, August 2025 Cover photo:© UNICEF/UN0364082/Merino/Chile/2020 This publication was produced by the Climate Change, Environment, Energy and DisasterRisk Reduction Section of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Regional Office for Author:Rafael Van der Borght Technical coordination:Reis López Rello, Climate Change and Sustainable DevelopmentRegional Advisor (UNICEF), María del Carmen Porras Pérez Guerrero, Climate Change andDisaster Risk Reduction Specialist (UNICEF), José Eduardo Alatorre, Economic Affairs Officer The United Nations and the countries they represent are not responsible for the content ofany linked websites included in this publication. The opinions expressed in this document are Authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part must be requested from the UNICEFLACRO Advocacy and Communication Section by emailingcomlac@unicef.orgor to theEconomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Documents andPublications Division,publicaciones.cepal@un.org. Member States and their governmental © United Nations and United Nations Children's Fund, July 2025 All rights reserved. UNICEFLatin America and Caribbean Regional OfficeBuilding 102, Alberto Tejada Street, City of KnowledgePanama, Republic of Panama The impact of climate changeon child and youth poverty in Contents List of graphicsivList of tablesvAcronymsvExecutive summary1 1. Introduction5 2. Conceptual framework and methodology18 2.1.The relationship between growth and child and youth poverty212.1.1.Theoretical and empirical foundations212.1.2.Growth-poverty elasticity and the evolution of child and youth poverty inLatin America232.2.The impact of climate change on economic growth27 3.Results29 3.1.The economic impact of climate change under different scenarios3.2.The impact of climate change on child and youth poverty 5.1.Data on poverty455.2. Relationship between poverty and economic growth47 Endnotes54 List of graphics Graph 1. Annual average variation of GDP per capita, Latin America, 1950–2020 Graph 2. Poverty rate, Latin America (18 countries), 2001–2022 (%) Graph 3. Poverty rate by age groups, Latin America (18 countries), 2022 (%) Graph 4. Evolution of average monthly temperature in LAC, 1901–2020 (°C) Graph 5. Monthly temperature anomalies by country (average 1991-2020 vs. 1901-1930)(°C) Graph 6. Number of meteorological disasters (bars) and reported losses (line) in millionUS dollars adjusted to 2022, in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1960-2023 Graph 7. Gini index, Latin America (18 countries), 2000-2022 Graph 8. Forecasted poverty rate vs. measured poverty rate, Latin America (17 countries), Graph 9. Distribution of the proportion of children and young people in the total number26 Graph 10. Projected temperature increase in Latin America under three climate scenarios Graph 11. Deviation of GDP per capita in Latin America in a changing climate vs. ascenario without climate change, 2030 and 2050 (%)33 Graph 12. Children and young people in poverty due to climate change effects in 2030,35 Graph 13. Projected increases in the number of children and young people in poverty in37 Graph 14. Discrepancies between international poverty lines of $3.65 and $6.85 per day(PPP) vs. poverty lines used by ECLAC for rural and urban areas of the region's countries Graph 15. Population projections for Latin America (18 countries) under each scenario Graph 16. Illustration of the poverty rate projection process under various scenarios51 Graph 17. Projected poverty rate by country under various climate scenarios andinequality trajectories, 2030 vThe impact of climate change on child and youth poverty in Latin America List of tables Table 1. Relationship between GDP per capita growth and poverty rate evolution for Latin Table 2. The GDP-Poverty relationship using various data sources Table 3. Summary of the projected evolution of the main variables Diagram 1. Incorporation of drought risk into a macroeconomic projection Acronyms CO2:Carbon dioxideCRU:Climatic Research UnitECLAC:Economic Commission for Latin America and the CaribbeanEU:European UnionGDP:Gross Domestic ProductGHG:Greenhouse GasesIPCC:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeLA:Latin AmericaLAC:Latin America and the CaribbeanNDCs:Nationally Determined ContributionsNGFS:Network for Greening the Financial System 1The impact of climate change on child and youth poverty in Latin America Executive summary Climate change is transforming the way welive and redefining the future of childhood. Inthe Latin American and Caribbean region,children and young peopleⁱ faceunprecedented risks that threaten theirpresent and future opportunities. Climatechange affects them disproportionately, asthey are physically and physiologically morevulnerable to withstand and survive extreme However, t