中国绿色企业出海：印尼汽车市场的机遇和挑战——以商用车为例的初步分析

中国绿色企业出海：印尼汽车市场的机遇和挑战——以商用车为例的初步分析 版权声明 本报告版权归香港绿色发展研究院（香港绿研院）所有。本报告用于在特定区域的研究与交流，未经香港绿研院授权，请勿转载、摘编或以其他方式使用其内容。如引用报告内容，应清晰注明来源。如有内容或合作等问题，请联系我们：philipng@gdihk.net。 Copyright Policy The copyright of this report belongs to the Green Development Institute (GDI).This report is intended for research and knowledge sharing only. Any redistribution,reproduction or use in any other form of any part or all of its content without theauthorization of the GDI is prohibited. Please clearly attribute the source whenquoting from this publication. For any inquiries regarding its content or potentialcollaboration opportunities, please contact us at philipng@gdihk.net. 绿色发展研究院（香港） 绿色发展研究院（绿研院）是由香港绿色金融协会主席、《“一带一路”绿色原则》共同主席、可持续投资能力建设联盟主席马骏博士发起的，在香港注册的绿色智库。绿研院旨在为政府和监管部门、绿色出海企业，以及以香港和大湾区为主要基地和开展国际业务的企业、金融机构和国际组织提供绿色发展和低碳转型等领域的政策建议及咨询服务。绿研院院长马骏、副院长吴剑林均应港府邀请担任了香港绿色科技及金融发展委员会成员。 绿研院已经和正在开展的工作包括： -研究和推动香港绿色科技发展战略。从 2022 年起，马骏院长组织各方专家撰写了在香港和大湾区发展绿色科技的政策建议，提出了构建包括绿色 PE/VC 基金、绿色科技孵化器 / 加速器、绿色科技企业场景开拓等要素在内的绿色生态圈的设想，部分建议已被纳入香港特区政府 2023 年度财政预算案；-成功主办2024 年香港绿色科技论坛和 2025 年绿色出海企业论坛，论坛邀得香港特区政府和东盟、欧洲和中东多国高级官员和专家，以及一大批内地、香港和海外出色企业、科技企业和创投机构，就绿色科技、绿色金融和企业出海等议题进行深入研讨，汇聚发展绿色科技的共识，为出海企业提供市场开拓、风险防范和融资渠道等资源对接；-为企业与金融机构策划碳中和路径、提升 ESG表现、强化可持续信息披露战略；接受金融机构和企业的课题委托，参与绿色与转型金融发展规划、跨境绿色投融资、“一带一路”投资ESG 风险、“一带一路”碳资产开发等方面的研究；-支持可持续投资能力建设联盟在香港、澳门和“一带一路”国家发展绿色投资的能力建设、课程开发和各类培训活动。参与和支持中国与葡语系国家绿色经济与金融合作机制的构建。 摘要 印尼作为东南亚最大的汽车市场，2023 年新车销量突破 100 万辆，占东盟地区汽车总销量 24.8%，连续五年保持区域市场领先地位，但 2024 年受全球经济波动影响下滑至 88.97 万辆；据印尼汽车工业协会主席指出，2025 年有望恢复正常，目标达 100 万辆。在整体市场调整背景下，商用车领域展现独特发展韧性，特别是轻型商用车 2024 年销量达 142,295 万辆，占汽车总销量的16.6%。这一发展得益于印尼电商行业的迅猛发展、农业现代化过程的加速推进，以及当地基础设施建设的加大投入。 中国车企作为新晋市场力量，凭借其在新能源汽车领域的技术优势和零部件零关税新能源汽车进口财政激励措施等政策红利，在印尼整体经济环境下行及消费者信心下降的同时仍得以保持稳步增长趋势，但同时也面临着法规差异、资源政策变动、汇率及运力价格波动、固有市场结构带来壁垒等多重挑战。 本研究采用定量分析与典型案例相结合的研究方法，系统梳理印尼商用车市场的发展现状与未来趋势。通过分析印尼工业协会最新官方数据，深入剖析了商用车市场规模与发展现状、市场结构与竞争格局，以及核心驱动因素。以中国上海通用五菱汽车为研究案例，重点讨论中国车企在印尼汽车市场的本地化发展策略和应对挑战的具体实践。研究建议中国车企建立以打造商用车零部件为核心的“三合一”智慧产业园，以实现传统燃油和混动及电动车型协同发展，从而更好地把握印尼市场的发展机遇，实现出海发展的宏伟蓝图。 关键词：轻型商用车 新能源汽车 汽车产业园 Abstract Indonesia, the largest automotive market in Southeast Asia, surpassed 1million new vehicle sales in 2023, accounting for 24.8% of total vehicle sales in theASEAN region, marking the fifth consecutive year of Indonesia's leading positionin the regional market. However, in 2024, due to global economic fluctuations, newvehicle sales dropped to 889,700 units. According to the chairman of the Associationof Indonesia Automotive Industries, the market is expected to stablize in 2025, with atarget of reaching 1 million new vehicle sales again. Driven by the rapid growth of the e-commerce industry in Indonesia,the accelerated modernization of agriculture, and increased investment in localinfrastructure, the demand for commercial vehicles is rising sinificantly. Lightcommercial vehicles, in particular, are in high demand, with sales reaching 142,295units in 2024, representing 16.6% of total vehicle sales. Chinese automakers have successfully achieved growth against the trend byleveraging their technological advantages and benefiting from supportive policy in thenew energy vehicle sector. However, they also confront various challenges, includingregulatory differences, changes in resource policies, fluctuations in exchange ratesand transportation costs, as well as barriers created by the existing market structure. This study employs a research methodology combining quantitative analysiswith case studies to systematically examine the current state and future trendsof Indonesia's commercial vehicle market.By analyzing the latest official datafrom the Association of Indonesia Automotive Industries, the research providesan in-depth analysis of the market size and current state, market structure andcompetitive landscape, as well as the core driving factors. Taking Shanghai GeneralMotors Wuling Automobile as a case study, the research discusses the localizationdevelopment strategies and practices of Chinese automakers in addressing challengeswithin Indonesia's automotive market. The study recommends that Chinese automakers establish a “three-in-one”smart industrial park centered on the development of commercial vehicle componentsto achieve synergistic development of ICEVs, EV, and HEV/PHEV models, therebybetter seizing the development opportunities in Indonesia's commercial vehiclemarket and achieving the goal of overseas expansion. Key Word: Light Commercial Vehicle, New Energy Vehicle, AutomotiveIndustrial Park 目录 ⼀、印尼汽车市场宏观分析...................................................................................1 （⼀）市场规模与现状分析....................................................................................1（⼆）市场结构...........................................................................................................2（三）竞争格局变化.................................................................................................3 ⼆、印尼商⽤车市场需求分析..........................................................................