波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那：若干问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperonBosnia and Herzegovinawas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with themember country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onJuly29, 2025. Copies ofthis report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean Department Prepared ByBobana Čegar Babić, Alpa Shah, Ian Stuart,Carolina Lopez-Quiles and Adrian Music CONTENTS REVISITING THE TAX WEDGE IN BIH_______________________________________________3 A. Introduction________________________________________________________________________3B. Overview of the BiH Labor Market and the Tax System_____________________________4C. Estimating the Tax Wedge for BiH__________________________________________________7D. The Tax Wedge Across the Income Distribution__________________________________12E. Conclusions and Policy Considerations____________________________________________14 BOX 1. Allowances Arising from Employment_______________________________________________8 FIGURES 1. PIT and SSC Rates in the Region, 2024______________________________________________62. Revenue Structure in the EU, BiH and Western Balkans_____________________________63. Tax Wedge in FBiH and RS________________________________________________________104. Tax Wedge Level and the Structure in the Region_________________________________115. Tax Wedge Depending on the Income Source____________________________________126. Tax Wedge Progressivity in BiH and the Region___________________________________127. Tax Wedge per Income Distribution_______________________________________________138. Tax Wedge in FBiH in 2025, Before and After Amendments to SSC Law___________14 TABLES 1. Labor Tax Rates in BiH, 2024________________________________________________________52. Fiscal Impact of 2025 MW and SSC Changes in FBiH________________________________7 ANNEX I. Tax Wedge in the EU_______________________________________________________________16 THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA _____________________________18 A. The Role of the Real Estate Market in Financial Stability___________________________________18B. Macroprudential Policy and the Real Estate Market________________________________________19C. (Residential) Real Estate Developments in BiH and the Region_____________________________20D. Conclusion_________________________________________________________________________________27 FIGURES 1.Developments in the Mortgage Segment__________________________________________________242. Deposit and Lending Interest Rate Dynamics_______________________________________________26 REVISITING THE TAX WEDGE IN BIH1 This paper revisits labor tax wedge issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in light of recent changes tominimum wages and social security contribution (SSC) rates. Using detailed information, it providesestimates of average and income-specific labor tax wedges in both the Federation of BiH (FBiH) andRepublika Srpska (RS). These suggest that the effective tax wedge may be lower than suggested byconventional measures—particularly in (FBiH), where non-taxable employment benefits andpreferential income tax treatments encourage tax-saving arbitrage. Reforms toward a more efficient,progressive and transparent system are necessary to boost fiscal and growth outcomes. There issignificant scope for simplification, base broadening and greater progressivity, which could pave theway for future headline SSC rate cuts. A.Introduction 1.The tax wedge in BiH is a significant driver of labor market outcomes.Taxes on labor,while an important feature of most tax systems worldwide, distort economic incentives by creating awedge between demand and supply, through the differential between what employers pay for laborandwhat employees receive. The tax wedge tends to reduce the amount of formally traded labor–an effect that may be exacerbated in BiH given the high labor mobility with advanced Europeancountriesandthe sizable informal sector.At the same time, labor taxes are important sources ofrevenue for the budget. Understanding the dynamics of the tax wedge is essential to balancerevenue generation with economic growth and labor market health. 2.Accurately measuring the tax wedge can provide important policy insights.Comparedto the generally accepted approach, we develop more precise estimates of the labor tax wedge inBiH considering specific characteristics of the labor legislation (see Section C). Givensignificantdifferences in statutory labor tax bases andrates between the Federation of BiH(FBiH) andtheRepublika Srpska (RS), tax wedge calculations are undertaken at the entity level.