上午洞察：2025年9月3日

Morning Insight:September 3, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： ContainerFreight Index (Europe route):Yesterday EC surged and then fellback. The main news impact came from MSC announcing blank sailingsscheduled around the National Day holiday in October. After the marketopened, shorts carried out concentrated position reductions, with the2512 and 2602contracts trading on peak season expectations, showingrelatively larger gains. In the afternoon, Maersk opened bookings forweek 38 freight, with spot freight rates continuing to weaken, coolingmarket sentiment. On the fundamentals, average weekly capacity in September remainedunchanged at 296,000 TEU/week, down 6% month-on-month, significantlylower than the 14% year-on-year capacity decline in 2024. For October, 2sailings are pending, from Evergreen and the PAalliance; blank sailingsnumber 11, with OA/PA/MSC accounting for 5/2/4 respectively. Excludingpending sailings, current weekly capacity stands at 282,000 TEU/week,down 4.6% month-on-month and up 7% year-on-year. In terms of absolutevolume, October capacity remains higher than the same period last year,but the growth rate has slowed compared with July–August. Consideringthat cargo volume growth this year is positive, carriers’suspensionintensity during the National Day holiday is overall at a neutral level.From the supply–demand perspective, in late August the overall marketload factor was around 95%. Carriers have generally relaxed restrictionson low-price contract bookings and special offers for large-ticket cargoto improve overall slot utilization. While this move supports short-term shipments, it also intensifies price competition. The imbalance in marketsupply and demand is expected to persist at least until the end ofSeptember, while October freight trends remain uncertain, with bothslight declines and stabilization possible. The Spring Festival in 2026 falls about half a month later than in 2025(January 28 in 2025 vs. February 17 in 2026). In past years when SpringFestival fell later (such as 2010, 2015, 2018), the December contract ofthe prior year still maintained a certain premium over the Octobercontract, but the February contract was not necessarily weak (notnecessarily at a discount to December). A short-term range-boundadjustment is expected, with consideration for rolling long spreads inFEB-APR and DEC-ARP on dips. MEG:Directional trend remains weak with fluctuations, but valuation iscurrently neutral, shorts reduced. Partial profit-taking on longPTA/short MEG positions. Hold 1-5 reverse spread. The core reason for therecent sharp decline in MEG lies in the market’s overall bearish outlookon supply and demand after October, with a clear pattern of supplyincrease and demand decrease. On the supply side, coal-based productionprofits remain above 500 yuan/ton against the backdrop of sharp coalprice declines, at a historical high, boosting plant operatingenthusiasm, with overall transaction prices continuing to fall. On theoil-based side, the market is focused on Yulong Petrochemical possiblystarting operations in October–November, Zhenhai Refining & Chemicalpotentially restarting in November–December, while Zhejiang Petrochemicaland Shenghong have already increased operating rates, and SatellitePetrochemical’s 900,000-ton unit is expected to restart by the end ofSeptember. Domestic supply will increase substantially after October. Onthe demand side, polyester operating recovery has fallen short ofexpectations. However, below the 4,300 price level, short-term downsidespace may be limited. Spot supply remains relatively tight, basis has rebounded, and with the traditional peak season of polyester consumption,a recovery in production and sales is still expected. Styrene:The staged speculation on the“anti-involution”theme hasended, and the contradiction in styrene positions continues toaccumulate, so in the short term do not chase shorts. The industry’sexpectations for the peak season of“Golden September and SilverOctober”remain strong. After last week’s styrene price decline, theindustry continued to bottom-fish through point pricing, resulting inmainstream downstream raw material tanks in East China being nearly full,creating significant pressure. Styrene inventory at East China portscontinues to accumulate, with tank capacity tight in September. In thenear term, the main driver remains reverse spread trading against thepressure of inventory build-up. Bulls are unlikely to give up in theshort term: on one hand, there are still expectations for the peak seasonand supportive macro policies with increased downstream transactions,while on the other hand, there is a belief that crude oil prices arerelatively low with limited further downside. At least until mid-September, bulls are unlikely to diverge. In the short term, do not chaseshorts, while in the medium term the fundament