2025年亚洲不良贷款观察

NONPERFORMING LOANSWATCH IN ASIA 2025 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in August 2025. ISBN 978-92-9277-396-0 (print); 978-92-9277-397-7 (PDF); 978-92-9277-398-4 (ebook)Publication Stock No. TCS250316-2DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS250316-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars and “CNY” refers to yuan.ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China; “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China;“Korea” and “South Korea” as the Republic of Korea; and “Vietnam” as Viet Nam. Cover design by Michael Cortes. Tables and FiguresivAcknowledgmentsvAbbreviationsviGlossaryviiExecutive Summaryviii1Introduction: Asia’s Nonperforming Loans Market12Nonperforming Loans in Asia: 2024 Data Analysis63Asset Management Companies Nonperforming Loans Transaction Trends in the Region114Impediments to Nonperforming Loans Transactions in the Region185Credit Servicers in the Region236Credit Risks and Nonperforming Loan Forecasts257Case Study of the People’s Republic of China318Case Study of the Republic of Korea359Case Study of Viet Nam3810Conclusion41 Annexes 1International Public Asset Management Companies Forum422Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies453Practical Insights from the ADB 2024 Report on Nonperforming Loan Trading Platforms in Asia464The European Union Best-Execution Guidelines—Lessons Learned Relevant for Asian47Nonperforming Loans Markets5Forecasting Nonperforming Loan Ratio and Identifying Key Determinants in International Public49Asset Management Companies Forum Countries Using Deep Learning62024 People’s Republic of China Nonperforming Loans Markets and Index Reports57 Bibliography 58 Tables 1Key Nonperforming Loans Metrics72Summary of Forecast Accuracy and Key Determinants of Nonperforming Loan Ratios29 Figures 1Nonperforming Loans Volume ($ billion) with Nonperforming Loans Ratio (%) by Region and Subregion82International Public Asset Management Companies Forum Question—Recent Nonperforming Loans13Transaction Activity, Current/Past 12 Months3International Public Asset Management Companies Forum Question—Estimated Total Nonperforming13Loans Transactions in Your Jurisdiction in the Last 12 Months4International Public Asset Management Companies Forum Question—Volume of NonperformingLoans Sales Performed by Your Asset Management Companies in 2024 145International Public Asset Management Companies Forum Question—Who Banks Can Sell NPLs To156International Public Asset Management Companies Forum Question—Types of Nonperforming Loans15Buyers Most Active in Your Market7International Public Asset Management Companies Forum Question—Most Frequent16Nonperforming Loans Transactions in Your Country8International Public Asset Management Companies Forum Question—Most Common Sectorsfor Nonperforming Loans Transactions in Past 12 Months169International Public Asset Management Companies Forum Question—Asset Management Companies17Nonperforming Loans Portfolio Composition10International P