2025年半年经济报告

HALF-YEARLY ECONOMICREPORT 2025 August 2025 CONTENTS Paragraphs CHAPTER 1 : OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 1.8-1.121.13-1.14 OverallsituationThe external sectorThe domestic sectorThe labour sectorTheassetmarketsInflationNet output of major economic sectorsOther economic developmentsBox 1.1Business sentiment in Hong Kong CHAPTER 2 : THE EXTERNAL SECTOR MerchandisetradeExternalenvironment2.1-Merchandiseexports2.7-Merchandiseimports2.9ServicestradeExportsofservices2.10Importsofservices2.11Goods and services balanceOtherdevelopments2.13-Box2.1Mainland’sexport market diversification CHAPTER 3 : DEVELOPMENTS IN SELECTED SECTORS 3.13-3.19-3.22 PropertyLandTourismLogisticsTransportInnovationandtechnologyEnvironment CHAPTER 4 : THE FINANCIAL SECTOR 4.1-4.54.11-4.124.13-4.164.174.19-4.22 Interest rates and exchange ratesMoney supply and banking sectorThe debt marketThe stock and derivatives marketsFundmanagement and investment fundsInsurancesectorHighlights of policy and market developments CHAPTER 5 : THE LABOUR SECTOR Overall labour market situationLabour force and total employmentProfile of unemploymentUnderemployment situation5.9Profile of employment in establishments5.10-5.11Vacancies5.12-Wages and earningsHighlights of related measures and policy developments5.17-5.19 CHAPTER 6 : PRICES 6.1-6.4-6.56.6 ConsumerpricesCosts of factor inputs and import pricesOutputpricesGDPdeflator STATISTICAL APPENDIX CHAPTER 1 : OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Summary ⚫The Hong Kong economycontinued to expandsolidlyin the second quarterof 2025,supportedbystrongexportsperformanceandimproveddomesticdemand.Real Gross DomesticProduct (GDP)(1)grew by3.1%over a yearearlier,picking up slightly fromthe preceding quarter.On a seasonallyadjustedquarter-to-quartercomparison(2), real GDP rose furtherby0.4%.⚫Hong Kong’s total exports of goodssawaccelerated year-on-year growth inthe second quarter, supported byresilientexternal demand,together withsome rush shipments in response to the temporaryeasingof the United States’(US)tariff measures.Meanwhile, exports of services continued to expandnotably, withallmajor service groups showing furtherincreases.⚫Domestically, privateconsumptionexpenditureresumedmoderate growthinthe second quarterafterfourconsecutivequarters of decline,as supportedbythe stabilisation in the domestic consumption market.Overallinvestment expenditureincreasedfurther,thanks toa surgein expenditure onmachinery, equipment and intellectual property products.⚫Thelabour market saw some softening in the second quarter.Theseasonally adjusted unemployment raterose to3.5%in the second quarterfrom 3.2%in the preceding quarter.The underemployment ratealsoincreased.⚫The local stock marketmaintained upward momentum in the second quarterasmarket sentiment improved subsequently after the US temporarilysuspendedmanyofitstariffs.The Hang Seng Index (HSI)recouped lostgrounds and sustained the uptrend to closethe second quarter at 24072, up4.1% from end-March.The residential property marketshowed somestabilisationin thesecondquarter.Flat pricesheld broadly stable,andrentalsstayed resilient.⚫Underlying consumer price inflationstayedmodest in thesecondquarter.Price pressures on major componentswerelargely contained. Overall situation 1.1The Hong Kong economycontinued to expandsolidlyin the secondquarter of 2025,supportedbystrongexports performanceandimproveddomesticdemand.Total exports of goods saw accelerated year-on-year growth,supportedbyresilientexternal demand andsomerush shipmentsin response tothe temporaryeasingof the US’tariff measures.Exports of servicescontinuedtoexpandnotably,with all major service groups showing furtherincreases.Private consumption expenditure resumed moderate growth after fourconsecutivequarters ofdecline,as supported by the stabilisation in the domesticconsumption market.Overall investment expenditureincreasedfurther, thankstoa surgein expenditure on machinery, equipment and intellectual propertyproducts. 1.2RealGDPgrew by3.1%year-on-yearin thesecondquarter(same asthe advance estimate),picking up slightly from thegrowth of3.0%in thepreceding quarter.On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, realGDProseby0.4%(same as the advance estimate),further tothe 1.8%increasein the preceding quarter. The external sector 1.3Total exports ofgoodsbased on the GDP compilation framework sawaccelerated year-on-year growth of11.5%in real terms in the second quarter of2025, followingan8.4% increase in the preceding quarter.Resilientexternaldemand, together with some rush shipments in response to the temporaryeasingof the US’ tariffmeasures, rendered support to export performance.Analysedby major market and byreferenceto external merchandise trade statistics,exportsto the Mainland posted further double-digit growth.Exports to ASEANmarkets accelerated further, and those to most high-income Asian economies sawincreases of varying degrees.Exports to the US turned to a decline, and thoseto the Eu