结果好于销售和市场支出带来的超出预期的节约

Results beat onbetter-than-expectedsavingsfrom sales and marketing spend Target PriceUS$146.30(Previous TPUS$134.50)Up/Downside15.1%Current PriceUS$127.11 PDD Holdings (PDD) announced (25Aug)2Q25 results: revenue was up7%YoY (1Q25:10%) to RMB104.0bn,inline withBloomberg consensus estimates,which was driven by a 1% beat in online marketing services and others, butoffset by the 1% miss in transaction services fees that we attributed to theimpactfromchange in“de minimis exemption”policy in the U.S. market. Non-GAAPNPdecreased by5% YoY to RMB32.7bnbut was46% better than consensus,driven by the 20% beat inOPand the RMB10.4bn interest and investmentincome. Although PDD is still in an investment stage to enhance platformecosystem, as well as to improve quality and diversity of supply, the beat inoperating profitlikelyspeaks to a better-than-feared impact from incrementalsales and marketing spend amid the backdrop of national subsidies.Althoughwe expectthe impacton earningsfrom investment to enhance supply andplatform ecosystem to sustain, we arestilllooking for a turning pointinearningsgrowth in 4Q25E, when both the launch of first-batch platform ecosystemenhancement policies and “national subsidies” campaign reachedafull-yearmilestone.Accounting for the earnings beat in 2Q25, we lift 2025E non-GAAPNP by 10%, while maintainingthatof2026-2027E largely unchanged, and liftSOTP-based TP by 9% to US$146.3 (was US$134.5). BUY. China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk WentaoLU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Impact from change in“de minimis exemption”policy gearing up.In2Q25, PDD’s online marketing services and others revenue rose by13.4%YoY (2Q24:29.5% YoY;1Q25:14.8% YoY) to RMB55.7bn,1% betterthanconsensus.Weestimatethe growth is largely inline with that of GMV growthof PDD’s main app. Transaction services revenue for2Q25grew bymerely1% YoY (2Q24:234% YoY;1Q25:6% YoY) to RMB48.3bn, which missedconsensusby 1%,in our view owing to the change in“de minimisexemption” policyin the U.S. market, as well as PDD’s move to furtherenhancemerchantsupport.However, we expect the ramp-up of“semi-entrusted”business modelas well as“localfulfilment”business model, andthe business expansion in other countriesto help offset the impact in theU.S. market. Shareholding Structure Better-than-expectedsavings onS&M expensesled to abeaton OPM.PDD’s GPM shrank to55.9%in2Q25(2Q24:65.3%), and was3.4ppt shyof consensus.However, thebetter-than-expectedcost savings from salesandmarketing expenses in 2Q25 drove a beat on OPM.Sales andmarketingexpensesreached RMB27.2bn, up4% YoY (1Q25:43%YoY),whichaccounted for26.2% of total revenue, and was7.5pptsbetterthanconsensus.This, in our view, speaks to abetter-than-feared impact fromincremental sales and marketing spend amid the backdrop of nationalsubsidies. Although we are still expecting some variabilities and fluctuationin quarterly sales and marketing spend amid still-fierceindustry competition,we arelooking for a turning pointinearnings growth in 4Q25E, when boththe launch of first-batch platform ecosystem enhancement policies and“national subsidies” campaign reachedafull-year milestone. Source: FactSet LiftSOTP-based TPto US$146.3; maintain BUY.Ournew TPconsistsof,per ADS: 1) US$94.0for the main app based on 12.5x2025E PE (wasUS$83.1 based on 12.0x PE); 2) US$1.9 for Duoduo Grocery (unchanged);3) US$20.5 for Temu based on 1.0x 2025E PS(unchanged); and 4)US$29.8for net cash (was US$29.0). Risks 1) Slower-than-expectedglobal business expansion; 2) geopolitical issues impactingbusiness development; and 3)slower-than-expected margin expansion. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or inpart, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The HongKong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +1