业绩保持增长，龙头盈利韧性较强

业绩保持增长，龙头盈利韧性较强 Profitmaintains growth&Leaderhavingstrong profitability resilience ⚫公司业绩大幅增长。2024年营业收入352.52亿元，同比增长10.5%；归母净利润26.38亿元，同比增长115.4%，其中2024Q4营业收入99.61亿元，同比+17.58%，环比-7.56%，归母净利润5.73亿元，同比+142.70%，环比-15.07%。2025Q1营业收入106.4亿元，同比增长17.06%，环比+6.82%；归母净利润11.52亿元，同比-19.14%，环比+100.10%。公司发布2025H1业绩预告，实现收入210.00亿元到223.00亿元，同比增长13.40%到20.42%；预计实现归母净利润22.40亿元到23.80亿元，同比减少11.81%到6.30%，其中25Q2实现归母净利润10.88到12.28亿元，环比-5.55%~+6.59%。实现扣非净利润21.80亿元到23.20亿元，同比增长1.68%到8.21%。 ⚫半钢胎毛利持续提升，公司盈利能力显著提高。2024年公司轮胎产品产量和销量分别为21673.14和21588.91万条，分别同比增长13.29%和10.41%。其中全钢胎2024年的产量和销量分别为2224.93和2225.44万条，分别同比增长5.30%和5.07%；半钢胎2024年产量和销量分别为7227.40和6946.58万条，分别同比增长19.45%和12.47%，且毛利由2023年的23.02亿元增长至2024年的30.93亿元，同比增长34.31%，为公司增长重要动力。公司2024年销售毛利率和销售净利率分别为19.48%和9.65%，分别同比增长0.13个百分点和/ 2.15个百分点。2025Q1公司销售毛利率和净利率分别为21.44%和10.82%，盈利能力稳中向好。 ⚫轮胎产品供需缺口持续，公司有望扩大国内市场龙头优势，提升海外份额。景气延续，龙头盈利韧性较强。公司依托全轮胎品类、全市场领域、全球化制造和经营的特有优势，继续发挥技术领先优势，优化生产运营且有效降低成本的同时，采用差异化的市场策略和全新研发产品优势。目前公司主要产品均存在不同程度的供不应求情况，进一步扩大中国国内市场龙头优势，并且在海外市场获得了份额的大幅提升。 ⚫盈利预测。我们预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为40.06亿元、47.45亿元和50.68亿元。考虑到同行业可比公司估值，我们给予公司2025年13倍PE，对应目标价为59.54元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 ⚫风险提示。海外贸易保护政策影响；关税波动；汇率波动。 Summary ➢The company's performance has significantly increased. In 2024, the operating revenue was 35.252billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was2.638 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.4%. Among them, the operating revenue in Q4 2024was 9.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.58% and a month on month decrease of 7.56%.The net profit attributable to the parent company was 573 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of142.70% and a month on month decrease of-15.07%. The operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 10.64billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.06% and a month on month increase of 6.82%; The netprofit attributable to the parent company was 1.152 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of-19.14% and a month on month increase of+10.010%. The company has released its 2025H1performance forecast, achieving revenue of RMB 21 billion to RMB 22.3 billion, a year-on-year increaseof 13.40% to 20.42%; It is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.24billion yuan to 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.81% to 6.30%. Among them, in the 25thquarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.088 billion yuan to 1.228 billion yuan,a month on month decrease of-5.55% to+6.59%. Realize a non-recurring net profit of 2.18 billion yuanto 2.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.68% to 8.21%.➢The gross profit of semi steel tires continues to increase, and the company's profitability has significantly improved. In 2024, the production and sales of the company's tire products were 216.7314and 215.8891 million respectively, an increase of 13.29%and 10.41% year-on-year. The productionand sales of all steel tires in 2024 were 22.2493 million and 22.2544 million respectively, a year-on-yearincrease of 5.30% and 5.07%; The production and sales of semi steel tires in 2024 were 72.2740million and 69.4658 million respectively, an increase of 19.45% and 12.47% year-on-year, and thegross profit increased from 2.302 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.093 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of34.31% year-on-year, which is an important driving force for the company's growth. The company'sgross profit margin and net profit margin for sales in 2024 were 19.48% and 9.65%, respectively, anincrease of 0.13 percentage points and/or 2.15 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2025, thecompany's gross profit margin and net profit margin were 21.44% and 10.82%, respectively, indicatinga stable and positive profitability.➢The supply and demand gap for tyre products persists, and the company is expected to strengthen its dominant position in the domestic market and increase its share of the overseas market. The economycontinues to thrive and leading companies demonstrate strong profitability resilience. The companyrelies on its unique strengths across all tyre categories and market areas, as well as its globalmanufacturing and operations. It continues to leverage its technological expertise to optimiseproduction and operations while reducing costs effectively. At the same time, it is adopting differentiatedmarket strategies and leveraging new R&D product advantages. Currently, there is a varying degree ofshortage of the company's main products, which is further expandingits leading advantage in thedomestic Chinese market and significantly increasing its market share in overseas markets.➢Profit forecast: Weexpectthat the company's net profitin 2025-2027will be4006million yuan,4745 million yuan, and5068million yuan. Considering the valuation of comparable companies in the sameindustry, we have given the companyPE of13xfor 2025, which corresponds toTPof RMB59.54. Weinitiate with the company witha "Buy" rating.➢Risk warning. The impact of overseas trade protection policies; Tariff fluctu