2025年第三季度经济季报

3rd Quarter 2025 SVB Asset Management views oneconomic and market factors affectingglobal markets and business health OverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Monetary PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and Performance The FOMC held interest rates steady for the second straight quarter in 2025. Powell noted that Fed participants do not have a lot of conviction with their rate path forecasts andwould continue to assess incoming data for their near-term monetary policy decisions. Marketexpectations still lean towards two rate cuts in 2025. •Cautious optimism remained in Q2 2025,although uncertainty about the US policyenvironment persisted. Tariff policy,monetary policy, inflation and treasuryyields were still fluid and difficult toforecast. At his press conferencefollowing the June Federal Open MarketCommittee (FOMC) meeting, BoardChairman Jerome Powell stated that“despite elevated uncertainty, theeconomy is in a solid position.” The unemployment rate remains low and has stayed in a narrow range. While some deceleration has been observed, labor market conditions remain steady with littlefluctuation in the unemployment rate, which ended June at 4.1%. Uncertainty remains around how tariffs will continue to affect inflation. While some inflationary pressures have been lifted, core price indicators remain above target. The Fedwill balance potential inflation pressures with signs of slowing growth. •Ongoing tariff negotiations andheightened geopolitical tensions createdmarket volatility. The Trumpadministration’s tariff deadlines wereseen as a critical input to inflation andgrowth. The US equity sector was marked by volatility but regained strength during the quarter. US stocks, especially technology companies, recovered as investors felt better about possible changesin trade policy. Robust corporate earnings and the temporary pause on new tariffs somewhat easedinvestor concerns and helped foster a more positive environment. The US Treasury yield curve has been steepening. •Core personal consumption expenditures(PCE)—the Federal Reserve’s preferredinflation indicator—rose 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) at the end of May. The Fedstated that it expects inflation to rise in2025 due to tariffs, but then resume adisinflationary path in 2026. The bond market showed resilience and generated positive returns in aggregate in Q2 2025. Bond performance was largely due to the market’s reactions to tariff negotiations, inflation remainingcontained and economic indicators showing ongoing economic strength. Despite tariff-related wideningin April, credit spreads tightened modestly amidst improving investor sentiment. In Q2 2025, the average number of jobs grew by approximately 150,000 per month. The unemployment rate has remained mostly steady,staying at 4.2% before lowering to 4.1% in June. As measured in May, there continue to be more jobs available (~7.8 million)than unemployedAmericans (~7.2 million). The number of unemployed Americans decreased slightly in June, down to ~7.0 million. Retail sales, excluding vehicles, have flattened between Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 as consumers pulled back in the wake of possibletariffs. Vehicle sales have dipped in response to consumer fears of tariffs and economic strain. Inflation has slowly started to rise, with the June2025consumer price index (CPI) rising to 2.7% YoY. CorePCE hovered at 2.7% YoY in May 2025, which is thesame as it was in May 2024. The Fed stated that it expects inflation to rise in 2025due to tariffs, but then resume a disinflationary pathstarting in 2026. Q2 2025 saw a rise in existing home supply,following decreasing home sales in a risingmortgage rate environment. Median homeprices have been on the rise since January. While business sentiment was up through Q12025, it saw a subsequent decline in Q2 2025.Institute for Supply Management (ISM) datashows a dip for Q2 2025 with these continualcontractions due to weakening demand andhigher material costs. Historically, the steepest drops have come in years of stock market outperformance. Since inflation returned in 2021, the USD had been trading on interest rate levels and expectations, diverging from its relationship to risk.Most recently, however, the inverse relationship has been restored. Q1 2024:Persistent, higher-than-expectedinflation pushed the timing of Fed rate cutsinto mid-2024 as market pricing reduced ratecuts from six to less than three for the year.The dot plot reiterated the Fed’s stance forthree cuts in 2024. Q2 2025 saw lower yields across the curve, but the Fed remained sidelined as trade policies continueto develop. Q2 2024:Elevated growth and stubborninflation forced the Fed to revise rate cuttiming to late 2024 and drop the cut count toone for this year. The holding pattern persists,but the quantity of easing expected through2026 remains unchanged. Q3 2024:Weaker employment data droverates over 100 basis points (bps) lower in Q3.The Fed delivered an outsized 50-bps