固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 In Asia IG space, we saw demand for long-end papers and floaters thismorning.There were selling in STANLNs amid USD9.6bn unlawfultransactions allegations. CTFSHK 29 was 0.8pt higher. GLPSP Perps weredown 0.2-0.6pt. GlennKo, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk HONGQI:1H25 profit surged on higher sales volume and selling prices.HONGQIs were unchanged this morning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Weak data might be good news. CMBI expects a further10 bps LPR cut and 50 bps RRR cut and expanding fiscal support tohouseholds and consumers. See below for comments from CMBI economicresearch. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Last Friday,we saw deploymentdemands on adding risk especially the longendof duration post US PPI.We saw strongdemand on China/HKbenchmarks of especially the ultra/long-end to belly papers with AM/PBchecking offers.China IG BABA/TENCNT tightened 5-10bps on long-endpapers; belly of BABA/TENCNT/HAOHUA/MEITUA/WB tightened 2-5bpswhile front-end was unchanged.Tencent 1H25 revenue rose 14% yoy toRMB364.5bn (cUSD50.8bn). Weibo 1H25 net revenue up 1.2% yoy toUSD722.5mn.In HK, HYSAN 4.85 Perp was 1.3pts higher. Hysan’s 1H25revenue increased 2.2% yoy to HKD1.7bn (cUSD220.4mn).NWDEVL27-31s/Perps were 0.3-1.3pts higher.On the other hand,CTFSHK4 ¼ 06/27/29was down 1.5pts.In financials, BBLTBs were 5bps tighter.Front end/bellyYankee AT1 remained sought after from AMs on the back of inflows and urgeto replenish risks.TW lifers CATLIF/NSINTW/SHIKON were 3-5bps tighter.We saw small selling flows inlong-end JP insurers while the PB demandremains solid. FinancialFRNs were 1bp lower to2bps higher on 2-3yr tenor,and were 2bps lower to 3bps higher on 4-6yr tenor. TEMASE 31-70s were0.1-0.9pt lower, while the new TEMASE 3 ¾ 08/20/27 and the new TEMASEFloat 08/20/27 were unchanged.In Chinese properties, YLLGSP wasunchanged after announcing a stabilizing 1H25 results.ROADKG 28-30srebounded0.9-1.5pts.ROADKG28-30s were 0.6-4.9pts lower whileROADKG Perps were unchanged at Fri close.In Chinese HYs, GWFOOD30 was 1.3pts higher,BTSDF 28/WESCHI 26 were 0.5pt higher.In SEA,PETMKs were 5bps tighter. INRCIN 31-50s were 0.1-0.8pt lower. The flows in LGFVs skewed to small better selling amid profit taking on off recent and seasoned issues. We sawmoderate selling flows in CNH non-LGFV from non-Chinese accounts amid reallocation back to USD assets, asoffshore and cross-border Chinese investors were picking up the front end papers. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-0.29%), Dow (+0.08%) and Nasdaq (-0.40%) were mixed on last Friday. US Jul’25 retail saleswas +0.5% mom, lower than the market expectation of 0.6%.UST yield was higher onlast Friday, 2/5/10/30 yieldat 3.75%/3.85%/4.33%/4.92%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 HONGQI: 1H25 profit surged on higher sales volume and selling prices China Hongqiao (HONGQI) reported 35.4% yoy increase in 1H25 net profit to RMB13.6bn, in line with thepositive profit alert in Jun’25.In 1H25, HONQGI’s revenue was 10.1% yoyhigher to RMB81.0bn driven byhigher sales volume, as well as higher selling prices of aluminum alloy products and alumina products.GPincreased by 16.9% yoy to RMB20.8bn and the GP margin improved to 25.7% from 24.2% in 1H24. EBIT roseby 21.0% to RMB18.1bn, supported by higher revenue and improved operational efficiencies. As of Jun’25, HONGQI had cash and cash equivalent of RMB48.7bn, increased by 8.9% from the level inDec’24 of RMB44.8bn, which was driven by operating cash inflow of RMB22.3bn during 1H25. Net debts was16.8% lower to RMB24.3bn from RMB29.2bn in Dec’24, due to higher cash balances and slightly lower in totaldebts.The leverage ratios improved as a result, the total debt/LTM EBITDA and net debt/LTM EBITDA downto 1.6x and 0.5x in Jun’25, respectively, from 1.7x and 0.7x in Dec’24. HONGQI has good access to various onshore and offshore funding channels. YTD, HONGQI has raised totaledRMB12.1bn via onshore bonds at a weighted average funding cost of 2.5% and USD900mn (USD bonds andCB) offshore.HONGQI did not announce an interim dividend for 1H25, yet it intends to repurchase shares inthe open market with a proposed total amount not less than HKD3bn.The share repurchase, in our view, isintended toreduce the dilution from thelikely conversion ofHONGQI 5.25 01/25/26 (CB)into equity, given theparity of 401.While we remain comfortable with HONGQI’s overall credit profile, we maintain neutral onHONGQIs on valuation. China Economy: Weak data might be good news China’s economy showed broad-based moderation in July, with slumping property sales and the fading boostfrom the trade-in scheme dragging on consumption, while weakening exports delivery value and the anti-involution campaign are set to weigh on manufacturing output and investment. New and second-hand housingsales