美联储观察：数据清晰度有助于弥合点阵图分歧

DB Fed Watcher:Data clarity can help to heal dot plot divisions Summary:Officials are unusually divided about the near-term policy outlook. Powell expressed openness to a cut in September datadependingDB View: Fed resumes cutting in December (25bps), followed by 2 more 25bp cuts in Q1 2026 reaching a neutral level of 3.625%. Risks skewed to earlier cut Identifying the 2025 dot plot divide Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank. Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fedpresident. Governor Kugler is shown as green as her seat expires in January. The green dots represent regional voters in2025and red dots represent regional voters in 2026. All other officials are represented by the gray dots. Patrick Harker is marked asgray as Philadelphia will have a new president in July 2025. Chart highlights Recentpublications: USEconomicPerspectives:Potentialpathsforbreakevenemployment–Jun-27-2025 Measures of broad-based inflation show someevidence of stalling progress FedNotes:Identifyingthe2025dotplotdivide–Jun-27-2025 USEconomicChartbook:WhoisbuyingTreasuries,mortgages,creditandmunis?(June2025)–Jun-23-2025 FedNotes:Unitedinuncertaintyordividedonwhenratesshouldfall?–Jun-23-2025 runSource: FRB, Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics,Deutsche Bank Source: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics, DeutscheBank USEconomicPerspectives:Impactofoilpriceshocksafrack-tionofwhattheyoncewere–Jun-23-2025 Trade policyuncertaintyreceded somewhatbutremained extremely elevated FCI-G has eased substantially back to thelevel seen in 2022 FedNotes:JuneFOMCrecap:Rambleonhold–Jun-18-2025 Webinar:USDratesoutlookaheadoftheJuneFOMC–Jun-18-2025 USEconomicChartbook:USInflationOutlook:Tariffsloomlargeoverotherwisegoodinflationdata–Jun-13-2025 Hawk-dove scores for Fed voters through 2027 Key economic forecasts Appendix 1Important Disclosures *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has notand will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner. Avik Chattopadhyay is an employee of Acuity Knowledge Partners, a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively'DeutscheBank').Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliates,whichincludesinvestmentbanking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues. Opinions,estimatesandprojectionsconstitutethecurrentjudgmentoftheauthorasofthedateofthisreport.TheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofDeutscheBankandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.DeutscheBankprovidesliquidityforbuyersandsellersofsecuritiesissuedbythecompaniesitcovers.DeutscheBankresearchanalystssometimeshaveshorter-termtrade ideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings.Some t