美联储观察者数据的清晰度可以帮助治愈点图分裂。..-116226703

Amy YangEconomist(+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.comMatthew LuzzettiChief US Economist(+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrett RyanSenior Economist(+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.comJustin WeidnerEconomist(+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.comAvik ChattopadhyayResearch Associateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comJune 30, 2025 ResearchDeutsche BankAmy Yang | (+1) 212 250 9959 |amy.yang@db.comJune 30, 2025DB Fed Watcher:Data clarity can help to heal dot plot divisionsFedspeakWho**TakeawaysBias*Powell[3](06/24,25)▪Policy slightly/modestly restrictive▪Majority supports rate cut later thisyear; move slowly given uncertainty▪Expect meaningful tariff effects oninflation in June, July, August. Well-positioned to wait and see▪Price stability key to strong labourmarket conditions▪Stagflation not the base case, butmonitoring; future trade deals maymotivate rate cutsWaller[1](06/20)▪Can cut rates as soon as July. Ifthere is big shock, can just pause▪Not seeing 2ndround of tariff inflationeffects. Can look through▪Cut before the job market tanks▪See Inflation rise 30 or 50 bpsBowman[5](0623)▪Support July cut if inflationpressures remained contained▪Not seeing major concern oninflation risks. Weigh more onemployment mandate. Shift inbalance of risks▪Expected limited, one-off inflationimpacts fromtariffsKashkari[4](06/24,26,27)▪2 cuts over rest of 2025, 1stcut inSeptember barring surprises. 2ndcutif with greater confidence in inflation▪Economy resilient because tariffimpacts are yet to be realized orcompanies managed to avoid it▪Hold rates till we get better clarityFedspeak, continuedWho**TakeawaysBias*Williams[2](06/24)▪Growth over 1%, UR up to ~4.5% in’25. inflation ~ 3% by year end andback to target in ’27. Be vigilant▪Tariffs adding 25bps to inflation now▪Policy modestlyrestrictiveGoolsbee[1](06/23,26)▪Need few months of clarity to assesstariff impact. Optimistic but want tobe sure inflation impact won’t last▪Can cut once the tariff dirt is cleaned▪‘Very worried’ about risks ofstagflation; not like ’70s▪See risk of both mandatesworsening at the same timeCollins[3](06/24,25,26)▪July probably too early for rate cut▪Expect to resume cuts later this year▪15% effective tariff rate stillsignificant, likely to push core PCEinflation to 3+% by year end▪See more significant tariff impactson inflation over the coming monthsHammack[5](06/24)▪Might hold for ‘quite some time’before initiating “very modest” cut▪Policy “already close to neutral”“only modestly restrictive”▪Dot near ‘top end’ in JuneSEP▪Recent inflation data encouragingbut backward-looking. Very slowdisinflation progress▪Final tariff extent and size uncertain.Average tariff rate still highest in acentury. Effects take time to show indata* Bias of speech / research for monetary policy:DovishNeutralHawkishSummary:Officials are unusually divided about the near-term policy outlook. Powell expressed openness to a cut in September datadependingDB View: Fed resumes cutting in December (25bps), followed by 2 more 25bp cuts in Q1 2026 reaching a neutral level of 3.625%. Risks skewed to earlier cut**The numbers in the bracket signify the Hawk-Dove score foreach Fed official. Scale:Dove = 1,2,Centrist = 3,Hawk = 4,5Fedspeak, continuedWho**TakeawaysBostic[3](06/23,30)▪1 25bps cut in late ’25; 3 cuts in ’26▪Will take some time for tariffs clarity.Much of pricing impact yet to showup, better not look through. Businessresponse might stretch into’26▪No rush to cut rates amidst possibleprice hikes, tariffs yet to show up▪Slow and persistent tariffs passthrough. A question of when, not ifBarr[2](06/24,25,26)▪2ndround effects could make tariffinflation persistent▪Well-positioned to waitDaly[3](06/26)▪The fall is promising for a cut▪Expect tariffs to have temporaryinflation effect; policy in a good placeBarkin[3](06/20,26)▪No rush to cut; Policy may not bethat restrictive; consumption steady▪Tradenegotiations likely takeextended period; expect to see pricepressures▪Job market break even now back to~80k-100k per month▪Neutral rate estimate likely upSchmid[5](06/24)▪Policy be forward looking. Watch forsigns of broad-based price rises▪Should replace core inflation with afood-based gaugeEvents to watch thisweekWhenWhoSetting / topicJuly-01 Powell▪Policy panel inSintraJuly-03 Bostic▪Speech on Monetary policy 2Bias* ResearchDeutsche BankAmy Yang | (+1) 212 250 9959 |amy.yang@db.comJune 30, 2025Identifying the 2025 dot plot divide3.53.73.94.14.34.5%2025PowellCookGoolsbeeJefferson WilliamsBarrBowmanKuglerMusalemCollinsSchmidHammackDB ID of the 2025 dots in the June SEPSource: FRB, Deutsche Bank. Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fedpresident. Governor Kugler is shown as green as her seat expires in January. The green dots represent regional voters in2025and red dots represent regional voters in 2026. All other officials are represented by the gray dots. Patrick Harker is marked asgray as Philadelphia will have a new president in Jul