美联储观察者软就业报告巩固了9月份的裁员-117682453

FedWatcher:Soft jobs report cementsSeptember cut Amy YangEconomist(+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.com Matthew LuzzettiChief US Economist(+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com Brett RyanSenior Economist(+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.com Justin WeidnerEconomist(+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com Avik ChattopadhyayResearch Associateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.com September 08, 2025 DB Fed Watcher:Soft jobs report cements September cut Summary:Soft August jobs report should seal the deal for a 25bps rate cut inSeptembermeeting and raise the prospects of a steeper rate cut pathDB View: 25bps rate cut in Sept., followed by 2 more 25bps cuts in Dec. and March., reaching a neutral level of 3.625%. Risk of cutsmeeting by meeting Identifying the 2025 dot plot divide DB ID of the 2025 dots in the June SEP Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank. Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fedpresident. The green dots represent regional voters in2025and red dots represent regional voters in 2026. All other officials arerepresented by the gray dots. *Former Governor Kugler’s dot is greyed out as her resignation was effective August 7. **FormerPhiladelphia Fed President Harker’s dot is greyed out as Anna Paulson replaced him in July 2025. Chart highlights Recentpublications: USEconomicChartbook:Augustemployment:Summerslumpredux–Sep-05-2025 Measures of broad-based inflation show someevidence of stalling progress Markets priced 50bps cut inSept.with 15%probability, 2 cuts by Oct. and 4 cuts by Mar. USEconomicPerspectives:DataDBrief:Saggingdemandedgesslumpingsupplyforlabormarket–Sep-05-2025 Webinar:AugustCPIpreview&webinarregistration–Sep-05-2025 PodzeptPodcast:MacroMATTers:JacksonHoleandFedleadershipchanges–Sep-04-2025 Source: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics, DeutscheBank FCI-G has eased substantially back to thelevel seen in 2022 Webinar:Augustemploymentpreview&webinarRegistration–Sep-04-2025 USEconomicNotes:DataDBrief:NotjusttariffInflation–Sep-03-2025 USEconomicChartbook:Monthlycharts:ASeptembercutbutthenwhat?-Sep02-2025 FedNotes:WhattheannouncementofCook’sremovalmeansfortheFed–Aug-26-2025 Hawk-dove scores for Fed voters through 2027 Key economic forecasts Appendix 1Important Disclosures *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has notand will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner. Avik Chattopadhyay is an employee of Acuity Knowledge Partners, a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank. AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively"DeutscheBank").Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliates,whichincludesinvestmentbanking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues. Opinions,esti