美联储观察：最新通胀数据不足以消除美联储内部分歧

FedWatcher:Latest inflation data notenough to dispel Fed divisions Amy YangEconomist(+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.com Matthew LuzzettiChief US Economist(+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com Brett RyanSenior Economist(+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.com Justin WeidnerEconomist(+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com Avik ChattopadhyayResearch Associateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.com DB Fed Watcher:Latest inflation data not enough to dispel Feddivisions FedspeakFedspeak, continuedSummary:Most officials continued to see a case for remaining patient in adjusting policy, while Waller repeated strong support for aJuly rate cutDB View: Fed resumes cutting in December (25bps), followed by 2 more 25bp cuts in Q1 2026 reaching a neutral level of 3.625%Fedspeak, continued Identifying the 2025 dot plot divide Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank. Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fedpresident. Governor Kugler is shown as green as her seat expires in January. The green dots represent regional voters in2025and red dots represent regional voters in 2026. All other officials are represented by the gray dots. Patrick Harker is marked asgray as Philadelphia will have a new president in July 2025. Chart highlights Recentpublications: USEconomicChartbook:USInflationOutlook:Tipofthetarifficeberg–Jul-18-2025 Measures of broad-based inflation show someevidence of stalling progress Markets priced first cut in Sept with 60%probability, and less than 2 cuts by December USEconomicPerspectives:FedspeakstaysslightlyhawkishaheadofJulyFOMCmeeting–Jul-17-2025 USEconomicPerspectives:Marketinflationexpectationsarelesssanguinethantheylook–Jul-17-2025 FedNotes:Isthereafirebehindallthesmoke?–Jul-16-2025 runSource: FRB, Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics,Deutsche Bank Source: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics, DeutscheBank Trade policyuncertainty recededfrom April butremained extremely elevated USEconomicNotes:JuneCPIrecap:Tipofthetarifficeberg–Jul-15-2025 FCI-G has eased substantially back to thelevel seen in 2022 USEconomicPerspectives:Apostmortemonrecessionprobabilitymodels–Ju-14-2025 USEconomicNotes:Tarifftrackerupdate:Letterbyletter–Jul-11-2025 Webinar:JuneCPIpreview&webinarregistration-Jul-10-2025 Hawk-dove scores for Fed voters through 2027 Key economic forecasts Appendix 1Important Disclosures *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has notand will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner. Avik Chattopadhyay is an employee of Acuity Knowledge Partners, a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively'DeutscheBank').Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBank