开曼群岛：住宅物业价格指数考察技术援助报告（2024年11月11日至22日）

CAYMAN ISLANDS Report on Residential Property Price IndexMission(November 11–22, 2024) MAY2025 Prepared ByJens Mehrhoff Authorizing DepartmentStatistics Department MEMBERS Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands,Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia,St. Maarten, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands PARTNERS Canada, United Kingdom, European Union, Netherlands, Caribbean Development Bank, Eastern Caribbean CentralBank Summary of Mission Outcomes and PriorityRecommendations 1.Technical assistance was provided to the Lands and Survey Department (LSD) of the CaymanIslands with finalizing the compilation and dissemination of a first-time Residential Property Price Index(RPPI) during November 11–22, 2024.This was the third mission to the LSD funded by CARTAC after twoearlier missions in FY23 and FY24 focused on assessing the data source and preparing the data for indexcompilation, respectively. 2.There was great interest from and continuous meetings during the mission with the CaymanIslands Monetary Authority (CIMA).CIMA will be the main user of the to-be-released indexes. The databasehosted by the LSD contains granular information on every transaction of land, developed and undeveloped, inthe Cayman Islands. Further, the LSD also has the domain expertise and institutional memory on the CaymanIslands real estate market. Together with the LSD, the mission reviewed the indexes for condominiums andassessed the suitability of the data on (undeveloped) land and houses for index compilation. The mission alsoassisted in developing a dissemination plan, including the creation of methodological documents, and undertooktraining of LSD staff on all facets of RPPI compilation, including data analysis using R. 3.Reliable property price indexes and other indicators of real estate markets are criticalingredients for policymakers to assess the state of the real estate market and its potential impact onmacroeconomic and financial stability.Rapid increases in property prices may indicate the presence of abubble that increases vulnerabilities in the financial system, while rapid decreases in property prices couldsignal an impending recession as households and businesses cut consumption and investment. The indexesare also used by policy makers as an input into the design of macroprudential policies, (i.e., policies aimed toreduce systemic risks in the financial sector) and to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. 4.A fact-finding mission in FY23 assessed the suitability of the data source for price indexcompilation.The LSD database not only contains granular information on every transaction, it also makesavailable the property characteristics that allow for an explicit property-mix adjustment. After this positiveoutcome, an implementation mission in FY24 developed price indexes for condominiums. To this end, ruleswere developed for selecting the data that are in-scope of the RPPI, outlying transaction were detected andremoved from the data set, hedonic price indexes were derived on that basis, and double exponential smoothingwas applied to the higher-frequency indexes. 5.Together with the LSD, the mission reviewed the indexes for condominiums and developeddocumentation for the dissemination.The compilation process has been moved to the cloud using an onlineversion of R, Posit Cloud. Transactions that involve more than a single property used to be excluded from theindex compilation. A number of these group transactions consist of one condominium with parking, which arerecorded as different properties in a single transaction. Now, those two-property transactions, which coulddefinitely be split into condominium and parking, were added to the data set; that is, the condominium part, only.Also, Seven Mile Beach is now defined geo-spatially rather than through an explicit list of parcels. Thedocumentation for the dissemination includes a launch and regular press release, a methods document as wellas frequently asked questions. Further, for undeveloped land, the assessment showed that extending the scopewould be relatively straightforward – unlike in many countries, land is on par with the number of transactions ofcondos. For houses, however, more work would be needed before a reliable index can be compiled, mostly dueto a lack of information on the footprint of the buildings. Last, the geographic feature of an island state meansalso considering the impacts of erosion on RPPIs. 6.The dissemination of the RPPI is scheduled with the availability of the results for the full year2024, most likely in April 2025.This might be somewhat delayed to May or June, though, because of the General Election on April 30, 2025. The initial publication will include the quarterly index for condominiums inGeorge Town as well as annual indexes