格鲁吉亚：技术援助报告决策数据（D4D）住宅物业价格指数（2024年12月2日至6日）

GEORGIA Data for Decisions(D4D) ResidentialProperty Price Index (December 2–6, 2024) APRIL 2025 PreparedByJens Mehrhoff DISCLAIMER “The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the InternationalMonetary Fund to the authorities of Georgia (the "CD recipient") in response to their request for technicalassistance. This document (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to theIMF Executive Director for Georgia, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as wellas to other agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff,and other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest, including members of theSteering Committee of D4D, unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure (seeOperational Guidance for the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Publication orDisclosure of this report (in whole or in part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies orinstrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bank staff, other technical assistance providers and donorswith legitimate interest, including members of the Steering Committee of D4D, shall require the explicitconsent of the CD recipient and the IMF’s Statistics department.” Table of Contents Acronyms..................................................................................................................................................... 2 A.Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 4B.Tidying the Scraped Data ........................................................................................................................ 5C.Removing Outliers (and Errors) ............................................................................................................... 6D.Model Selection, Weights, and Medians.................................................................................................. 7E.Index Compilation–Hedonic Approach .................................................................................................. 10F.Outlook and Next Steps ......................................................................................................................... 11G.Officials Met During The Mission ........................................................................................................... 11H.Annex 1: Model Selection ...................................................................................................................... 12I.Annex 2: Hedonic Imputation Approach ................................................................................................ 13 Acronyms D4DData for Decisions (Fund)GeostatNational Statistics Office of GeorgiaHIHedonic Imputation (Index)MoUMemorandum of UnderstandingRPPIResidential Property Price IndexTATechnical Assistance Summary of Mission Outcomes and PriorityRecommendations 1.Technical assistance (TA) was provided to the National Statistics Office of Georgia(Geostat) during December 2–6, 2024 to extend the scope and coverage of the residential propertyprice index (RPPI) using web-scraped data.This was the latest mission to Georgia in a series since2018 to specifically focus on the RPPI but the third one to be conducted under the Data for Decisions(D4D) Fund. Earlier missions have allowed Geostat to produce and disseminate an RPPI for newbuildings using the information from one website. 2.Reliable property price indexes and other indicators of real estate markets are criticalingredients for policymakers to assess the state of the real estate market and its potential impacton macroeconomic and financial stability.Rapid increases in property prices may indicate thepresence of a bubble that increases vulnerabilities in the financial system, while rapid decreases inproperty prices could signal an impending recession as households and businesses cut consumption andinvestment. The indexes are also used by policy makers as an input into the design of macroprudentialpolicies, (i.e., policies aimed to reduce systemic risks in the financial sector) and to evaluate theeffectiveness of monetary policy transmission. 3.Previous missions assisted the authorities to analyze, process and aggregate datacollected by the authorities from a web-based property website.In addition, the hedonic approach toindex calculation was applied to the data. This approach adjusts for the varying mix of properties in thesample from period to period, allowing for the calculation of a constant quality price index. Initialexperimental indices were developing. 4.Geostat should continue using web-scraped data to adjust for the property mix using awide range of characteristics, thus improving the quality of the index.The mission assisted in thedevelopment of a fully automated system without the need for