固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 The Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025 Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk We hope you found our commentaries and ideashelpful. We seek toelevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highlyappreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of “TheAsset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025”.Thank you for yoursupport! Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk This morning, sentiment was cautious in general amid two-way flows. MTRCPerps were 0.25-0.3pts higher.IG space initially widened 5-10bps thenfollowed by 1-3bps tighter. THbanks T2s were unchanged to 3bps wider.FRNs widened 1-2bps. JerryWang王世超(852)3761 8919jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk FRESHK:Stable asset quality amid revenue decline.Maintain buy onFRESHK. FRESHKs widened 10-15bps this morning. See below. Macao gaming:GGR growth accelerated in 7M25. See below. Tradingdesk comments交易台市场观点 Last Friday,sentiment softened before the release of the July Non-farmPayrolls (NFP) data. The new UBS 6.6 Perp and UBS 7 Perp were down 0.1-0.5pts, following a tight primary pricing. Yankee notes and Japanese AT1salsodropped by 0.25-0.5pt,as selling gradually picked up amid theresumption of primary supply.In Greater China high-beta credits, we sawperps retracing by c0.1pt ledby MTRC. In China IG, TENCNT 29 widened3bps while TENCNT 30-35 tightened 1bp, MEITUA was 4bps tighter to 2bpswider, and XIAOMI/WB 3.375 30/BABA 30-35 were 2bps tighter to 1bp wider.TH banks sub curve widened 2-4bps, TW lifers widened 1-3bps, and KoreaCorp HYNMTR/LGENSO and FIs NHSECS/SHINFN/TYANLI were 1-2bpswider. On the other hand, HYUELE 26-28s were 2-8bps tighter. See ourcomment on SK Hynix on1 Aug’25. In FRN space, EU banks were 1-2bpstighteramid PB buying,and Japan banks were 1-2bps tighter onMIZUHO/SUMIBK 31. LGFV spaceremained largely afloat as RM was deploying cash at tighterlevels, driving AAA-CNH papers to high-4% and high-yielding USD issuestowards 7%. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-1.60%), Dow (-1.23%) and Nasdaq (-2.24%) were lower onlast Friday. US Jul’25 S&P GlobalManufacturing PMI was 49.8, lower than the market expectation of 49.5. US Jul’25 ISM Manufacturing PMI/Priceswas 48.0/64.8, lower than the market expectation of 49.5/69.9, respectively.UST yield was lower on last Friday,2/5/10/30yield at 3.69%/3.77%/4.23%/4.81%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 FRESHK: Stable asset quality amid revenue decline Far East Horizon (FEH) reported largely stable asset quality yet lower profitability in 1H25. We expect FEH’soperating performance and asset quality to remain stable in view of its diversified leasing asset base. We alsoexpect its liquidity profile to remain adequate given its smooth access to low-cost onshore funding.In our view,FRESHKs offer more attractive risk-return profiles than its peers such as BOCAVI 26-28s (YTM of 4.4-4.6%).We maintain buy on FRESHKs. FEH’s revenue declined 4% yoy to RMB17.3bn in 1H25. Income from industrial operations were lower, due toweaker demand from contract builder clients.This was partly offset by higher income from advisory servicesand stable financial leasing businesses. The net interest margin rose by 4bps to 4.51% in 1H25 compared to1H24.Pre-provision operating profit fell 7% yoy under higher administrative expenses in 1H25.Assetimpairment losses were lower in 1H25, attributable to more prudent risk managementpolicies.The reversalsof assets after write-off more than offset the increased assets provisions.As a result,PBT remained stable atRMB4.0bn in both 1H25 and 1H24. The ROAA declined by 9bps to 1.21%, while ROAE increased by 17bps to8.66%. 2FEH continuedto incur net operating cash outflow in both 1H25 and 1H24. The operating cash outflow in 1H25rose by 80% due to higher receivables as of Jun’25 and lower payables. Meanwhile, FEH’s capex dropped by70% yoy to RMB1bn in 1H25. Recalled that FEH generatednet operating cash inflows in the second half overthe past few years, primarily due to increased collections of receivables during the second half of the year. Weexpect FEH to generate sufficient operating cash flow to cover its capex throughout 2025. FEH’s net debts increased slightly by 1% to RMB248.0bn as of Jun’25 from Dec’24, primarily due to a lowercash balance. We take comfort from FEH’s continued access to low-cost onshore funding.YTD, FEH issuedtotalled RMB13bn onshore bonds at a weightedaverage coupon rate of 2.4%, down from 2.8% in 2024. FEHalso redeemed USD300mn FRESHK 3.375 02/18/25 inFeb’25, and issued USD500mn FRESHK 6 10/01/28in Apr’25. Asset quality of FEH was largely stable as of Jun’25. We expect FEH’s asset quality to remain stable through2025 in view of its prudent policies to contain non-performing assets and reduce exposure to LGFVs.As ofJun’25, the NPL ratio declined by 2bps to 1.05% from Dec’24, while the provision coverage ratio remainedstable a