锡周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures强弱分析：偏弱价格区间：260000-265000元/吨周度锡价小幅反弹，周五夜盘收于265600元/吨。本周明显反弹至27万上方，但后续价格又有所回落。本周价格波动受到宏观面和消息面影响，宏观“反内卷”运动使得商品普涨，锡作为现实基本面偏强的有色品种也受到连带影响，另外缅甸洪水和老挝地震等自然灾害对供给的影响对价格亦有扰动。基本面方面，本周价格出现小幅累库，云南江西开工率小幅回升，现实基本面没有出现特别大的变化。从价差来看，本周海外LME0-3升水略有回升，国内现货升水维持再700元。6月主要终端需求略有环比回暖，但是从实际需求量来看由于月度产量下滑但库存累库而偏低。我们仍然倾向于目前锡基本面紧现实弱预期格局延续，短期锡价将于26万至27万高位区间内，关注临近8月向下突破驱动。若突破，锡价下方空间将打开，或至23万附近位置。锡：宏观扰动锡价 ◆◆◆ 交易面（价格、价差、库存、资金、成交、持仓）01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货2025-07-252025-07-242025-07-232025-07-222025-07-212025-07-182025-07-172025-07-162025-07-152025-07-142025-07-112025-07-10 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货-500050010001500200001-0201-14美元/吨100000150000200000250000300000350000400000元/吨本周LME0-3升水65美元/吨，国内现货升水700元/吨。 01-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-17LME(0-3)现货升贴水2018201920202021202220232024202501-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-131#锡锭价格201720182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000002020/8/182021/8/18 2022/8/18 2023/8/18 2024/8/18Tin rand fixing price for LME tradeTin grade A min 99.85% ingot all-in price, ddpMidwest US海外premium较上周基本持平，巴尔的摩升水小幅收窄。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.2价差日期2025-07-252025-07-242025-07-232025-07-222025-07-212025-07-182025-07-172025-07-162025-07-152025-07-142025-07-112025-07-102025-07-09 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures-1500-1000-500050010001500200001-0201-1401-26元/吨1.2价差-5000-3000-10001000300050007000900001-0201-1401-26元/吨本周锡月间结构从此前的C结构转为B结构。 02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-27Sn02-Sn0320172018201920222023202402-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-27Sn00-Sn01201720182019202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存日期2025-07-252025-07-072025-07-042025-07-032025-07-022025-07-012025-06-302025-06-272025-06-262025-06-252025-06-24 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存05000100001500020000250003000001-0301-1401-2802-1102-25吨0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000001-0301-15吨本周全球锡总库存累库35吨，国内社会库存累库230吨，期货库存去库237吨。 03-0803-1903-3104-1204-2305-0705-1905-2906-1106-2407-0707-1707-2908-0908-2009-0109-1109-2310-1110-2211-0311-1311-2512-0612-1712-30全球锡总库存2019202020212022202320242025050001000015000200002500001-0301-14吨202001-2902-1503-0103-1203-2304-0304-1604-2705-1005-2106-0106-1206-2307-0407-1507-2608-0708-2009-0209-1409-2710-1610-2911-1111-2412-0712-20SHFE锡锭库存总计20182019202020212022202320242025201520162017100001200014000160001800020000吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存020040060080010001200140016001800吨010002000300040005000600070008000900001-0201-1401-26吨20172023本周LME库存去库145吨，注销仓单比例上升至18.68%。 LME:注销仓单:锡LME注销仓单比02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-0611-18LME锡库存201820192020202120222024202520152016 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.4资金截至本周五沪锡沉淀资金为161797万元，近10日资金流向为流入方向。 日期当日资金流向近3日资金流向2025-07-25-4958.435284.182025-07-2418234.997025.492025-07-232575.992933.942025-07-22265.50492.572025-07-215960.341402.242025-07-172994.52-257.392025-07-16-3703.91289.262025-07-15-62.79-17.122025-07-144634.50395.582025-07-11-4623.07-586.142025-07-101175.31-132.632025-07-091689.33-2596.232025-07-08-3262.55-2916.812025-07-07-6215.46-2853.152025-07-04727.57-764.112025-07-03-3071.56-744.382025-07-0251.66-2094.672025-07-01786.76668.702025-06-30-7122.414618.742025-06-278341.767155.962025-06-2612636.875511.962025-06-25489.241290.142025-06-243409.77-346.542025-06-23-28.59-1992.792025-06-20-4420.81-2974.892025-06-19-1528.97-1528.97沪锡资金流向变化（单位：万元） Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期SHFE总成交sn002025-07-2514570466936变化-61036-375942025-07-242067401045302025-07-23117614690392025-07-22102966636672025-07-21118684732732025-07-18101110685762025-07-1793690622432025-07-1677568555662025-07-151268751322025-07-14112325900102030405060708001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-09万手x 10000成交量2017201820222023本周沪锡成交持仓小幅回落，持仓量小幅提升。 sn0167410-1654183951420803248937852273162607917721906497965906-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-012019202020242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期成交量2025-07-25521.0000变化2025-07-24826.00002025-07-231300.00002025-07-22499.00002025-07-21747.00002025-07-18629.00002025-07-17496.00002025-07-16688.00002025-07-15447.00002025-07-14515.0000LME3个月期货成交量本周LME锡成交小幅回落，持仓继续回落。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.6持仓库存比01-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-19总持仓库存比20172018201920202023202420252015本周沪锡持仓库存比小幅回升。 锡供应（锡矿、精炼锡）02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures2.1锡矿2025年3月锡精矿产量为6344吨，同比减少0.74%；2025年6月进口11911吨，同比减少7.07%，累计同比减少32.41%。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures2.1锡矿05000100001500020000250003000001-0201-14元/吨