能源化工尿素周度报告

估值端：价格及价差01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素基差01-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-0120192020202101-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-01201920202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素月差及仓单01-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-045-9月差201920202021202201-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-041-5月差2019202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素国内现货价格10001500200025003000350001-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-0408-1408-24元/吨正元小颗粒尿素出厂价2019202020212022202310001500200025003000350001-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-0408-1408-24吨河北小颗粒尿素市场价20192020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素国际现货价格01-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-0105-1105-2105-3106-1006-2006-3007-1007-2007-3008-0908-1908-2909-08波罗的海大颗粒尿素FOB20182019202020212022202301-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-0105-1105-2105-3106-1006-2006-3007-1007-2007-3008-0908-1908-2909-08中国小颗粒尿素FOB201820192020202120222023 国内供应02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures产量：生产利润在盈亏平衡线上，尿素日产仍维持高位10000012000014000016000018000020000022000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-1810-0110-1410-2711-0911-2212-0512-1812-31吨尿素：产量：中国（日）201820192020202120222023202420255055606570758085909501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-19%尿素：产能利用率：中国（日）201820228910111213141516171801-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27万吨煤头尿素：产量：中国（日）2018201920202021202220232024202500.511.522.533.544.5501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-19万吨气头尿素：产量：中国（日）20182022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures利润：尿素现金流成本所对应利润目前在盈利状态-600-400-20002004006008001000120001-0101-1401-2702-09元/吨-200020040060080010001200140001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2206-0206-1306-2407-0507-1607-2708-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1210-2511-0611-1912-0212-1512-28元/吨尿素气流床完全成本生产利润20182019202020212022202320242025-400-2000200400600800100012001400160001-0101-1401-2702-09元/吨02004006008001000120014001600180001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2206-0206-1306-2407-0507-1607-2708-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1210-2511-0611-1912-0212-1512-28元/吨尿素固定床装置现金流利润20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures净进口（出口）：出口政策调整，后续出口量或有所增加-2002040608010012014001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨尿素：出口数量终值：中国（月）201820222018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年2024年2025年14.358.936.629.28.524.11.405.239.414.914.315.216.50.808.732.527.136.86.6120.4011.79.811.253.9157.60.5216.221.66060.18.618.33.5014.314.522.348.218.622.47.46.610.426.718.124.315.132.37.9-12.565.820.126.435.131.42.6-19.154.682.8109.234.7118.40.9-23.465.2109.27435.156.20.3-44.445.784.65037.351.60.2-64.159.758.23.553.434.40.2-244.3494.5545.1529.9283.1425.126.2-112.4227.5250.7243.8130.2195.512-1500-1000-5000500100015002000250030003500400001-0101-1001-1901-2802-0602-1502-2403-0503-1403-2304-0104-1004-1904-2805-07元/吨小颗粒主流出口利润（元/吨）201920202021 国内需求03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.建设规模目标：1.2022年，累计建成10亿亩高标准农田。2.2023年，已建成4500万亩，还剩3000万亩3.到2025年，累计建成10.75亿亩高标准农田（新增7500万亩）。4.到2030年，累计建成12亿亩高标准农田。2.改造提升目标：1.2023年，已改造3500万亩2.2024年，计划继续改造3500万亩3.到2025年，改造提升1.05亿亩高标准农田。4.到2030年，改造提升2.8亿亩高标准农田。3.粮食产能提升目标：1.新增高标准农田亩均产能提高100公斤左右。2.改造提升高标准农田产能不低于当地高标准农田产能的平均水平。4.上图入库覆盖率目标：1.建成高标准农田上图入库覆盖率100%。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures需求（工业刚需）：复合肥基本面01020304050607001-0101-1301-2502-0502-1703-0103-1303-2504-0504-1704-2905-1005-2206-0306-1406-2607-0807-1907-3108-1408-2809-1109-2510-0910-2311-0611-2012-0412-18%复合肥：产能利用率：中国（周）201920202021202220232024202505001000150020002500300035004000450001-0101-1301-2502-0502-1703-0103-1303-2504-0504-1704-2905-1005-2206-0306-1406-2607-0807-1907-3108-1408-2809-1109-2510-0910-2311-0611-2012-0412-18元/吨复合肥：45%S（15-15-15）：生产成本：山东（周）2019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures需求（工业刚需）：三聚氰胺基本面-4000-200002000400060008000100001200001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31元/吨三聚氰胺：生产毛利：山东（月）2018201920202021202220232024202544004600480050005200540056005800600001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31元/吨三聚氰胺：市场主流价：山东（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures20需求（工业刚需）：房地产对于板材的需求支撑力度较为有限，板材出口具有韧性02040608010012014001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万立方米出口数量:木及其制品:胶合板及类似多层板:当月值202020212022202320242025050000001000000015000000200000002500000030000000350000004000000001-3102-28 03-31 04-30 05-31 06-30 07-31 08-31 09-30 10-31 11-30 12-31千克木制定向刨花板(OSB)(44101200):出口数量:当月值20202021202220