商用市场展望 2025-2044

2TABLE OF CONTENTSForeword.........................................................................................................................3Executive summary........................................................................................................4Global trends and drivers...............................................................................................5Global traffic, fleet and airplane demand outlook...........................................................7Air cargo and freighter outlook.......................................................................................9Regional forecasts........................................................................................................Africa........................................................................................................................11China.......................................................................................................................13Eurasia.....................................................................................................................15Latin America............................................................................................................17Middle East..............................................................................................................19North America...........................................................................................................21Northeast Asia.......................................................................................................23Oceania....................................................................................................................25South Asia................................................................................................................27Southeast Asia........................................................................................................29Methodology......................................................................................................31Glossary.............................................................................................................33 11View of the horizon through a head-up display (HUD) 3FOREWORDBrad McMullenSenior Vice PresidentCommercial Sales and MarketingThe Boeing Company As we cross the quarter century mark,I’m reminded of how resilientour industry is in the face of uncertainty. Passenger air traffic has tripledand the global airplane fleet has more than doubled over the past 25 yearsas commercial aviation grew despite significant challenges.While we will continue to adapt and navigate some level of volatility, weprovide this comprehensive forecast as a map of where the industry isheaded over the next 20 years – backed up by decades of data, researchand expert analysis.From our vantage point in 2025, we see passenger air traffic continuingto rise and demand for new airplanes remaining strong, outstripping supplyfor years to come. Operators will need new airplanes to replace older,less-efficient jets and to grow their fleets to support travel demand.We expect it will take at least until the end of this decade for airplanesupply to catch up with market demand, at which point commercialaviation will align with its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.We know our industry will continue to grow and overcome current andfuture hurdles, in part, because we’ve proven we can do that againand again. GLOBAL OUTLOOKDeliveries43,600Regional jets1,545Single-aisle33,2852044 fleet49,640Widebody7,815Annual fleet growth3.1%Freighters955Annual traffic growth4.2%EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2025-2044 5GLOBAL TRENDS AND DRIVERSOver the last quarter century, the aviation industry has been on a remarkablegrowth trajectory. Traffic volumes have tripled and there are now twice as manyairport pairs served and double the number of airplanes flying. This growth hascome despite a number of historic challenges – including the 9/11 attacks, theGlobal Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Resilience is a proven andunshakable trait of this industry.The next decades will likely bring uncertainty and obstacles as well, but there willbe just as many opportunities and structural drivers supporting further connectivityand growth in air transport. In fact, while merchandise trade globalization hasslowed since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09, the spread of global tourism—the connection of people and cultures—continues at pace.+45% growth(2018-2030)5% annualizedgrowthfrom 1990GlobalpandemicGlobalFinancial Crisis9/11 &SARSRecessionAviation’s resilience is proven; this is a growth industryRevenue Passenger Kilometers (trillions)Source: Cirium, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Boeing Analysis Passengertraffic Commercial Market Outlook2025-2044In addition, services trade is still expanding rapidly, growing at a rate nearlytwo percentage points faster than the rate of merchandise trade since 2010and linking