2025-2044年商业航空市场展望报告

TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword.........................................................................................................................3Executive summary........................................................................................................4Global trends and drivers...............................................................................................5Global traffic, fleet and airplane demand outlook...........................................................7Air cargo and freighter outlook.......................................................................................9Regional forecasts........................................................................................................11Africa........................................................................................................................11China.......................................................................................................................13Eurasia.....................................................................................................................15Latin America............................................................................................................17Middle East..............................................................................................................19North America...........................................................................................................21 FOREWORD Brad McMullenSenior Vice PresidentCommercial Sales and Marketing As we cross the quarter century mark,I’m reminded of how resilientour industry is in the face of uncertainty. Passenger air traffic has tripledand the global airplane fleet has more than doubled over the past 25 years While we will continue to adapt and navigate some level of volatility, weprovide this comprehensive forecast as a map of where the industry isheaded over the next 20 years – backed up by decades of data, research From our vantage point in 2025, we see passenger air traffic continuingto rise and demand for new airplanes remaining strong, outstripping supplyfor years to come. Operators will need new airplanes to replace older, We expect it will take at least until the end of this decade for airplanesupply to catch up with market demand, at which point commercial We know our industry will continue to grow and overcome current andfuture hurdles, in part, because we’ve proven we can do that again EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLOBAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS Over the last quarter century, the aviation industry has been on a remarkablegrowth trajectory. Traffic volumes have tripled and there are now twice as manyairport pairs served and double the number of airplanes flying. This growth hascome despite a number of historic challenges – including the 9/11 attacks, the In addition, services trade is still expanding rapidly, growing at a rate nearlytwo percentage points faster than the rate of merchandise trade since 2010 Consumers continue to prioritize air travel in their spending choices. Travelspending as a share of discretionary spending has returned to about pre-pandemiclevels and in some cases is now exceeding it. Several key long-term drivers supportthis trend. Overall, average airfares relative to income levels have declined. The next decades will likely bring uncertainty and obstacles as well, but there willbe just as many opportunities and structural drivers supporting further connectivityand growth in air transport. In fact, while merchandise trade globalization has GLOBAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS Airline industry business models have also significantly diversified over the lastcouple of decades. Airlines are expanding options to provide more price pointsand service levels to match consumer needs. To support the wider range of fare Emerging markets play a key role in future demand. In a world with new andevolving alliances, a more integrated Global South may well be a key source ofgrowth going forward. Passenger traffic within and between emerging marketshas risen six-fold over the last two decades. Already, the share of global traffic Five years after the onset of the pandemic, industry airplane supply remains wellbelow prior peak production levels. Delivered capacity is still more than 20% belowpre-pandemic levels and lags the manufacturing capacity recovery following Airlines are adapting with a range of tactics including increasing utilization perairplane. Single-aisle airplane average hours flown per day is 15% higher than2019 levels, or an extra hour per day. Airlines are also extending airplane economiclives. The share of the passenger fleet at or above the average economic retirement GLOBAL TRAFFIC, FLEET AND In 2024, the global airline industry marked a significant milestone, surpassingpre-pandemic traffic levels first achieved in 2019. This resurgence signals arobust recovery and a return to growth for the sector. Over the past 25 years,the airline