锡周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures强弱分析：偏弱价格区间：260000-265000元/吨周度锡价小幅反弹，周五夜盘收于265600元/吨。本周价格重新跌落，回到265000附近的价格区间内。基本面方面，本周缅甸向多家矿山发放开采许可证，有效期为三年，完成管理费缴纳和实物税清缴后开始正式复产。消息落地后锡价小幅跌落，但由于复产属于预期内且部分资金仍对于出矿量较为悲观，锡价反应并不剧烈。6月锡锭生产继续下滑至14000吨以下，同比回落15%，再生产量由于废料减少亦出现明显下滑，仅回落至2020吨，月度供给减少。但是高频数据显示周度锡锭冶炼厂开工率有所回升，SMM社会库存亦出现明显累库，现货采买需求清淡。同时海外刚果、尼日利亚等进口矿仍较为宽松，致使原料紧缺的情况略有缓解。缅甸方面面临雨季锡矿出产或使得产出量不高，但边际来看仍是增加方向。我们我们倾向于目前锡基本面紧现实弱预期格局延续，短期锡价将于26万至27万高位区间内，关注临近8月向下突破驱动。若突破，锡价下方空间将打开，或至23万附近位置。锡：佤邦发放许可证 ◆◆ 交易面（价格、价差、库存、资金、成交、持仓）01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货2025-07-182025-07-172025-07-162025-07-152025-07-142025-07-112025-07-102025-07-092025-07-082025-07-072025-07-042025-07-03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货-500050010001500200001-0201-14美元/吨100000150000200000250000300000350000400000元/吨本周LME0-3升水44美元/吨，国内现货升水700元/吨。 01-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-17LME(0-3)现货升贴水2018201920202021202220232024202501-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-131#锡锭价格201720182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000002020/8/112021/8/11 2022/8/11 2023/8/11 2024/8/11Tin rand fixing price for LME tradeTin grade A min 99.85% ingot all-in price, ddpMidwest US海外premium较上周基本持平，巴尔的摩升水小幅收窄。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.2价差日期2025-07-182025-07-172025-07-162025-07-152025-07-142025-07-112025-07-102025-07-092025-07-082025-07-072025-07-042025-07-032025-07-02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures-1500-1000-500050010001500200001-0201-1401-26元/吨1.2价差-5000-3000-10001000300050007000900001-0201-1401-26元/吨本周锡月间结构从此前的C结构转为B结构。 02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-27Sn02-Sn0320172018201920222023202402-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-27Sn00-Sn01201720182019202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存日期2025-07-182025-06-302025-06-272025-06-262025-06-252025-06-242025-06-232025-06-202025-06-192025-06-182025-06-17 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存05000100001500020000250003000001-0301-1401-2802-1102-25吨0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000001-0301-15吨本周全球锡总库存累库49吨，国内社会库存累库212吨，期货库存去库237吨。 03-0803-1903-3104-1204-2305-0705-1905-2906-1106-2407-0707-1707-2908-0908-2009-0109-1109-2310-1110-2211-0311-1311-2512-0612-1712-30全球锡总库存2019202020212022202320242025050001000015000200002500001-0301-14吨202001-2902-1503-0103-1203-2304-0304-1604-2705-1005-2106-0106-1206-2307-0407-1507-2708-0908-2109-0309-1509-2810-1810-3011-1211-2512-0812-21SHFE锡锭库存总计20182019202020212022202320242025201520162017100001200014000160001800020000吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存020040060080010001200140016001800吨010002000300040005000600070008000900001-0201-1401-26吨20172023本周LME库存去库160吨，注销仓单比例下降至15.25%。 LME:注销仓单:锡LME注销仓单比02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-0611-18LME锡库存201820192020202120222024202520152016 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.4资金截至本周五沪锡沉淀资金为131522万元，近10日资金流向为流出方向。 日期当日资金流向近3日资金流向2025-07-18-4748.14-1819.182025-07-172994.52-257.392025-07-16-3703.91289.262025-07-15-62.79-17.122025-07-144634.50395.582025-07-101175.31-132.632025-07-091689.33-2596.232025-07-08-3262.55-2916.812025-07-07-6215.46-2853.152025-07-04727.57-764.112025-07-03-3071.56-744.382025-07-0251.66-2094.672025-07-01786.76668.702025-06-30-7122.414618.742025-06-278341.767155.962025-06-2612636.875511.962025-06-25489.241290.142025-06-243409.77-346.542025-06-23-28.59-1992.792025-06-20-4420.81-562.102025-06-19-1528.97-1142.262025-06-184263.47-651.092025-06-17-6161.27-2610.072025-06-16-55.47-816.192025-06-13-1613.47-1196.562025-06-12-779.64-779.64沪锡资金流向变化（单位：万元） Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期SHFE总成交sn002025-07-1810111068576变化742063332025-07-1793690622432025-07-1677568555662025-07-151268751322025-07-14112325902025-07-1197391242025-07-101025881302025-07-09123506862025-07-08901275142025-07-071088215140102030405060708001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-09万手x 10000成交量2017201820222023本周沪锡成交持仓小幅回落，持仓量小幅提升。 sn0127316123726079177219064979659709587690195678713348441706-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-012019202020242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期成交量2025-07-18629.0000变化2025-07-17496.00002025-07-16688.00002025-07-15447.00002025-07-14515.00002025-07-11306.00002025-07-10801.00002025-07-09396.00002025-07-08386.00002025-07-07689.0000LME3个月期货成交量本周LME锡成交小幅回落，持仓继续回落。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.6持仓库存比01-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-19总持仓库存比20172018201920202023202420252015本周沪锡持仓库存比小幅回升。 锡供应（锡矿、精炼锡）02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures2.1锡矿2025年3月锡精矿产量为6344吨，同比减少0.74%；2025年5月进口13449吨，同比增加59.84%，累计同比减少36.51%。 同比进口量环比同比累计累计同比7.52-0.742025-05134493