2025年6月石油市场报告

Summary and Oil Market ContextDemandOPECprojectsglobaloildemandtoriseby1.3mb/dy/yinboth2025and2026.Stronger-than-expectedeconomicactivityinthefirsthalfof2025,drivenbyrobustperformanceinIndia,China,andBrazil,hasliftedtheglobalGDPgrowthforecastto2.9%fortheyear.Easingtradetensions,particularlythroughagreementsinvolvingtheUSandkeypartners,areexpectedtoreduceuncertaintyandsupportoilconsumptioninthesecondhalfof2025.TheEIAprojectsgloballiquidfuelsconsumptiontoincreaseby0.8mb/din2025and1.1mb/din2026y/y,withgrowthconcentratedinnon-OECDcountries.Non-OECDdemandisexpectedtoriseby0.9mb/din2025and1.0mb/din2026y/y,whileOECDconsumptionremainsbroadlystableovertheforecastperiod.TheIEAforecastsglobaloildemandtorisebyapproximately0.7mb/din2025y/y,slightlybelowlastmonth’sestimateduetoweaker-than-expectedsecond-quarterdeliveriesintheUnitedStatesandChina.In2026,demandgrowthisalsoexpectedtoremainaround0.7mb/dy/y.Acleardivergencepersistsacrossagencies,withforecastgapsreachingupto0.6mb/dforboth2025and2026.SupplyOPECprojectsnon-DoCliquidssupplyandDoCNGLstogrowbyapproximately0.9mb/dyear-on-yearin2025,reachinganaverageof62.4mb/din2025,ledbytheUnitedStates,Brazil,Canada,andArgentina.The2026forecastreflectsaslightdownwardrevision,withsupplyexpectedtoincreaseby0.9mb/dtoanaverageof63.3mb/d.Angolaisanticipatedtorecordthemostdecline,whilethesamefourcountriesremainthekeydriversofproductiongrowth.TheEIAmaintainsits2025growthforecastfornon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLsatapproximately1.3mb/d,reachingatotalof77.3mb/d—unchangedfromlastmonth’sassessment.For2026,theEIAhasreviseditsgrowthforecastdownwardto0.7mb/d,bringingthetotalto78.1mb/d.Italsoprojectsnon-DoCsupplyandDoCNGLstogrowby1.3mb/din2025and0.7mb/din2026,y/y.TheIEAforecastsnon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLstoincreaseby1.5mb/din2025and1.1mb/din2026,year-on-year.Fornon-DoCsupplyandDoCNGLs,theIEAprojectsgrowthofapproximately1.3mb/din2025and1.0mb/din2026. 2 Summary of 2024-2026 Balances•OPEC maintains its projection of a 1.3 mb/d year-on-year increase in global oil demand for both 2025 and 2026.•The EIA projects year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d y/y in 2026.•The IEA forecasts global demand growth of 0.7 mb/d y/y/ in both 2025 and 2026.20242024 Y/Y1Q252Q253Q25IEA103.00.9102.4103.6104.8OPEC103.81.5104.4104.2105.5EIA102.70.9102.1103.1104.4IEA45.70.045.145.546.0OPEC45.70.045.345.546.3EIA45.70.045.345.046.2IEA57.40.957.358.158.7OPEC58.21.559.158.759.2EIA57.10.956.958.158.2IEA75.80.976.277.177.6EIA76.10.776.477.277.7IEA61.41.561.762.663.1OPEC61.51.462.462.462.2EIA61.91.562.363.163.5IEA27.2-0.126.226.527.1EIA26.70.125.825.926.6IEA41.6-0.640.741.041.7OPEC42.40.142.141.843.4EIA40.9-0.639.840.140.9Source: IEF, IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, EIA STEO* Includes biofuels and processing gains** Only EIA publishes a forecast for global stock changesOECD Demandlowest forecasthighest forecastNon-OECD DemandNon-OPEC Supply* andOPEC NGLsCall on OPECNon-DoC Supply* andDoC NGLsCall on DoC CrudeGlobal Demand2025 34Q2520252025 Y/Y1Q262Q263Q264Q2620262026 Y/Y104.3103.80.7103.1104.3105.5105.1104.50.7106.4105.11.3105.7105.4107.0107.5106.41.3104.4103.50.8103.3104.6105.3105.1104.61.145.645.6-0.144.845.145.945.545.3-0.246.145.80.245.545.546.546.245.90.145.945.6-0.145.445.346.045.945.60.058.758.20.858.259.259.659.659.21.060.259.31.160.259.960.561.460.51.258.557.90.958.059.259.259.459.01.078.277.31.577.978.478.478.578.31.178.077.31.377.577.978.278.578.10.763.662.71.363.263.863.964.163.71.062.662.40.963.062.963.263.963.30.963.763.21.363.363.764.064.363.80.726.126.5-0.725.125.827.126.626.2-0.326.426.2-0.525.826.627.126.626.50.340.741.1-0.639.940.541.641.040.8-0.343.742.70.442.742.543.843.643.20.440.740.4-0.540.140.941.340.840.80.42024-2026 Balance Summary20262024 2025 Outlook Comparison Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions•OPEC maintains a stronger outlook for global oil demand, projecting year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025,compared to 0.7 mb/d from the IEA and 0.8 mb/d from the EIA.•Both the IEA and EIA project robust supply growth from non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs, with increases of 1.3-1.5mb/d year-on-year in 2025.1Q252Q253Q254Q2520252025 Y/Y1Q25IEA102.4103.6104.8104.3103.80.7-0.1OPEC104.4104.2105.5106.4105.11.30.3EIA102.1103.1104.4104.4103.50.8-1.0IEA45.145.546.045.645.6-0.1-0.1OPEC45.345.546.346.145.80.20.2EIA45.345.046.245.945.6-0.1-0.3IEA57.358.158.758.758.20.80.0OPEC59.158.759.260.259.31.10.1EIA56.958.158.258.557.90.9-0.7IEA76.277.177.678.277.31.50.3EIA76.477.277.778.077.31.30.1IEA61.762.663.163.662.71.30.0OPEC62.462.462.262.662.40.90.1EIA62.363.163.563.763.21.30.1IEA26.226.527.126.126.5-0.7-0.4EIA25.825.926.626.426.2-0.5-1.2IEA40.741.041.740.741.1-0.6-0.1OPEC42.141.843.443.742.70.40.2EIA39.840.140.940.740.4-0.5-1.2Source: IEF, IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, EIA STEO* Includes biofuels and processing gains** Only EIA publishes a forecast for global stock changesCall on DoC Crude2025 Balance SummaryNon-OECD DemandCall on OPECNon-OPEC Supply* andOPEC NGLsNon-DoC Supply* andDoC NGLsUpdated Forecas