石油市场报告-2025年10月

Methodology Notes Oil Industry and Markets Division August 2024 Contents Introduction (updated)..........................................................................................................................................3Refining hubs........................................................................................................................................................4Refinery configuration and product yields (updated)..............................................................................................4Crude grades (updated).........................................................................................................................................5Petrochemical margins..........................................................................................................................................6Emission costs (updated).......................................................................................................................................7Energy consumption costs (updated).....................................................................................................................7Refinery margin calculation (updated)...................................................................................................................9Changes compared to July 2022 model (updated)..................................................................................................9 Introduction(updated) The Oil Industry and Markets Division of the International Energy Agency has published refinerymargins since June 1992 in its monthly Oil Market Report.In 2022, the IEA refining marginscalculation was revised (Methodology 2022) to provide an indicative site average margin basedon three criteria: -Geography, namely: Mediterranean, North West Europe, Singapore, the US Gulf Coast, andthe US Midcontinent -Crude processed: selection based on typical regional crude slate, accessibility, API andsulphur composition -Refinery complexity profile: Hydroskimming, catalytic cracking, coking and petrochemicalsintegration This note detailsthenewAugust 2024methodology(Figure 1)thatintegrates: -the utility costson top of the existing calculationsuch as natural gas, refinery fuelgas, LPG,fuel oil, electricity, petroleum coke,imported steam-anew yield structurebased on empirical data-some prices adjustments To avoid double counting, initial energy use assumptions and hydrogen needs calculations havebeen removed from the new process.The objective is to provide a more realistic refining margindriven by the commodity market. In order to get the utilities data, the source that has been chosen is the IEA World Energy Statistics.This country-level dataset is calculated from the annual submission by the OECD members. Itcontains the throughput and the consumption of all types of energy quoted aboveon a countrylevel. IEA refinery margins remain strictly indicative, however, and do not include the full spectrum ofothernon-energy variable costs (such as chemicals or catalysts),capital expendituresor manhourscosts. These margins should be referenced as IEA Global Indicator Refinery Margins. On the charts andtables, referenced in IEA publications, the source should be identified as IEA/Argus MediaGroupprices. Refining hubs For now, the IEA will continue assessing refinery margins for five regions, including onlySingapore from East of Suez refining hubs. Northwest EuropeMediterranean EuropeUS Gulf CoastUS MidcontinentSingaporeRefinery configuration and product yields (updated) Two to three types of refinery configurations are selected per region, based on the characteristicsof existing refinery capacity. For example, coking facilities are not very common in NorthwestEurope, while hydroskimming refineries are rare in the US. Our main purpose is to track a hypothetical average refinery, based on prevailing crude diets andtypical product outputs in each refining centre.Yields take into account both long-term structuralchanges and the impact on demand and refinery operations/product configurations and will bereassessed on an annual basis. Initially, themethodologywasdiverting from software-simulated refinery yields where thespecified configuration and crude grade drive the outputs.The methodology now implementssome empirical featuresto calculate the yields.For some regions, the yields are now adjusteddepending on the available data. For instance, USGC and USMC yields are obtained fromU.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA) publications.Northwest Europe and Mediterraneancracking/hydrocracking refinery yields are based on refinery input and output data from the IEA’sMonthly Oil Statistics, with adjustments for sweet and sour crude grades. Singapore refinerymargins are based on average yield statistics for several Asian countries, where reliable datasetsare available. Observed product yields are simplified toincludeonly major traded products. Re