2025年6月石油市场报告

Summary and Oil Market Context DemandOPECprojectsglobaloildemandtoriseby1.3mb/dy/yinboth2025and2026.Stronger-than-expectedeconomicactivityinthefirsthalfof2025, drivenbyrobustperformanceinIndia,China,andBrazil,hasliftedtheglobalGDPgrowthforecastto2.9%fortheyear.Easingtradetensions,particularlythroughagreementsinvolvingtheUSandkeypartners,areexpectedtoreduceuncertaintyandsupportoilconsumptioninthesecondhalfof2025. TheEIAprojectsgloballiquidfuelsconsumptiontoincreaseby0.8mb/din2025and1.1mb/din2026y/y,withgrowthconcentratedinnon-OECDcountries.Non-OECDdemandisexpectedtoriseby0.9mb/din2025and1.0mb/din2026y/y,whileOECDconsumptionremainsbroadlystableovertheforecastperiod. TheIEAforecastsglobaloildemandtorisebyapproximately0.7mb/din2025y/y,slightlybelowlastmonth’sestimateduetoweaker-than-expectedsecond-quarterdeliveriesintheUnitedStatesandChina.In2026,demandgrowthisalsoexpectedtoremainaround0.7mb/dy/y. Acleardivergencepersistsacrossagencies,withforecastgapsreachingupto0.6mb/dforboth2025and2026. SupplyOPECprojectsnon-DoCliquidssupplyandDoCNGLstogrowbyapproximately0.9mb/dyear-on-yearin2025,reachinganaverageof62.4mb/d in2025,ledbytheUnitedStates,Brazil,Canada,andArgentina.The2026forecastreflectsaslightdownwardrevision,withsupplyexpectedtoincreaseby0.9mb/dtoanaverageof63.3mb/d.Angolaisanticipatedtorecordthemostdecline,whilethesamefourcountriesremainthekeydriversofproductiongrowth. TheEIAmaintainsits2025growthforecastfornon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLsatapproximately1.3mb/d,reachingatotalof77.3mb/d—unchangedfromlastmonth’sassessment.For2026,theEIAhasreviseditsgrowthforecastdownwardto0.7mb/d,bringingthetotalto78.1mb/d.Italsoprojectsnon-DoCsupplyandDoCNGLstogrowby1.3mb/din2025and0.7mb/din2026,y/y. TheIEAforecastsnon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLstoincreaseby1.5mb/din2025and1.1mb/din2026,year-on-year.Fornon-DoCsupplyandDoCNGLs,theIEAprojectsgrowthofapproximately1.3mb/din2025and1.0mb/din2026. Summary of 2024-2026 Balances •OPEC maintains its projection of a 1.3 mb/d year-on-year increase in global oil demand for both 2025 and 2026.•The EIA projects year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d y/y in 2026.•The IEA forecasts global demand growth of 0.7 mb/d y/y/ in both 2025 and 2026. 2025 Outlook Comparison Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions •OPEC maintains a stronger outlook for global oil demand, projecting year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025,compared to 0.7 mb/d from the IEA and 0.8 mb/d from the EIA. •Both the IEA and EIA project robust supply growth from non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs, with increases of 1.3-1.5mb/d year-on-year in 2025. Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts •OPEC maintains the most optimistic outlook for 2026 oil demand growth, despite a narrowing range among agencies.•The EIA revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast downward by ~0.2 mb/d, bringing the estimate to 0.8 mb/d y/y. Non-OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day Global Demand GrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day Oil demand growth driven by non-OECD regions, with wide inter-agency gaps at the global level 2025 Demand Growth Forecasts by Regiony/y growth in million barrels perday Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts •OPEC has maintained its 2025 non-DoCsupply growth forecast at 0.8 mb/d year-on-year.•The IEA forecasts US supply growth at 0.5 mb/d, nearly double the EIA’s estimate. Non-DoCSupplyGrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day US supply growth estimates vary notably across agencies 2025 Supply Growth Forecasts by Regiony/y growth in million barrels perday The average call onDoCcrude for 2025 differs by nearly 2.5mb/d between OPEC and the EIA 2025 Call on DoC Crude and Recent DoC Production Levelsmillion barrels per day 2026 Outlook Comparison Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions •OPEC forecasts global oil demand at 106.4 mb/d in 2026, with year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d.•The IEA projects a 0.2 mb/d contraction in OECD demand, while OPEC and EIA show flat to modest growth. Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts •Global demand growth forecasts stabilize, with OPEC maintaining the highest outlook. •The EIA revised its 2026 projections upward by ~0.1 mb/d, while the IEA and OPEC showed stable forecasts with nosignificant changes. OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2026 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day Non-OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2026 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day Global Demand GrowthEvolution of 2026 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts •The EIA revised down its supply growth forecasts significantly.•The three agencies are now showing greater convergence around non-DoCsupply growth. Non-OPECSupplyGrowthEvolution of 2026 Forecastsy/y growth in million