2025年黄金年中展望

Contents Conclusion Downhill or second wind? Gold has continued its record-setting pace, rising 26% in US dollar terms in the firsthalf of 2025 – and reaching double-digit returns across currencies (Table 1, p5).A combination of a weaker US dollar, rangebound rates and a highly uncertain As we look forward, one of the questions investors continue to ask is whether gold hasreached a peak or has enough fuel to push higher. Using our Gold ValuationFramework, we analyse what current market expectations imply for gold’s If economists and market participants are correct in their macro predictions, ouranalysis suggests that gold may move sideways with some possible upside –increasing an additional 0%-5% in the second half. However, the economy rarelyperforms according to consensus. Should economic and financial conditions Trade-related and other geopolitical risks played alarge role, not just directly, but by fuelling moves inthe dollar, interest rates, and broader market volatility– all of which fed into gold’s appeal as a safe-haven.Taken together,these factors have contributed One for the record books Gold closed out the first half of the year as one of thetop-performing major asset classes, rising 26% overthe period (Chart1, p4). It recorded 26 new all-timehighs (ATHs) in H1 2025, having broken through 40 Behind this was a combination of factors, including: Risk and uncertainty– as a trigger for flows frominvestors looking for effective hedges:4%(half ofwhich was explained by an increase in the •a weaker US dollar•rangebound yields with expectations of future rate Opportunity cost– making gold more attractiverelative to the US dollar and bond yields: 7% (with Stronger demand also came from increased tradingactivity across OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs. Thisliftedaverage gold trading volumes to US$329bn per Momentum– which can boost trends or, equally,mean-revert them: 5% (mostly connected to Central banks also contributed with continued buyingat a robust pace – even if not at the record levels of Y-t-d returns for gold and key asset classes in USD* A new trade order As the world has grappled with uncertain andconfrontational trade negotiations, one of the mostsignificant macro themes so far this year has been the This was also seen through the underperformance ofUS Treasuries, which, for more than a century, hadbeen the epitome of safety. Yet, inflows into Treasuries Conversely, gold ETF demand was particularly strongin the first half of the year, led by notable inflows fromall regions. By the end of H1 the combination of asurging gold price and investor flight to safety pushedglobal gold ETF’s total AUM 41% higher to US$383bn. covering a five-year estimation period using monthly data. Alternativeestimation periods and data frequencies are available onGoldhub.com.4.We use theGeopolitical Risk (GPR) Indexto capture the direct influence that Consensus expectations: continued normalisation Market consensus suggests global GDP will movesideways and remain below trend in the second half (Figure2). World inflation is likely to rise above 5% inH2 as the global impact of tariffs becomes morepronounced – with the market expecting US CPI to While an advance in trade negotiations is anticipated,the environment will likely remain volatile, as seenover the past few months. Overall, geopoliticaltensions – particularly between the US and China – are Impact of consensus expectations on gold Our analysis, based on ourGold Valuation Framework,suggests that, under current consensus expectationsfor key macro variables,gold could remain What to expect in H2 The second half of the year sits on a seesaw, withgeoeconomic uncertainty keeping investors on edge.Inflation data have shown signs of improvement, butconcerns remain that conditions could deterioratequickly. Dollar-related pressures are likely to persist,and questions around the end of US exceptionalismmay dominate investor discussions. Overall, these Technical indicators suggest that gold’s consolidationphase over the past few months is a healthy pause in abroader uptrend, helping to ease previous overbought Falling interest rates and continued uncertainty wouldmaintain investor appetite, particularly via gold ETFsand OTC transactions. At the same time, central bankdemand is likely to remain robust in 2025, moderating To assess the effect of such varied conditions, we lookat gold’s four key drivers – economic expansion, riskand uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum – However, elevated gold prices are likely to continue tocurb consumer demand and potentially encourage As we have discussedin the past, looking atconsensus expectations often implies a rangeboundperformance, likely indicating that gold is efficiently As we have seen historically during periods ofheightened risk, investment demand would As such, it is important to understand the conditionsthat may push gold higher or lower from here. And while flows into gold ETFs in t