咸味零食承压，能量饮料表现更佳

Equity ResearchJuly11,2025 us of non-US analysts on pages 5 - 11 of this report. A 39-bp decline from the prior monthSource: Jefferies Research, Placer.aiScott Marks * IEquity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8007 I smarks1@jefferies.comCorey Tarlowe * IEquity Analyst(212) 323-7541 Ictarlowe@jefferies.comKaumil Gajrawala * I Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8937Ikgajrawala@jefferies.com JefferiesFigure 1 - Convenience food category $ sales growth y/yConvenience Channel L3M vs. L6M Average $ Sales Growth y/y+4.0%(2.0%(4.0%(6.0%)Figure 2 - Convenience food category volume growth y/yConvenience Channel L3M vs.L6M Average Volume Growth y/y+2.0%(2.0%(4.0%(6.0%(8.0%)(10.0%)Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibitec /e 6/14/25 JefferiesFigure 3 - Convenience food category price per volume growth y/yConvenience Channel L3M vs. L6M Average Price Growth y/y+8.0%+6.0%+4.0%+2.0%+0.0%(2.0%)(4.0%)(6.0%)ource: Jefferies Research, NielsenlQ xAOC +C w/e 6/14/25Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. JefferiesFigure 4 - Convenience food category velocity growth y/yConvenience Channel L3M vs. L6M Average TDP Growth y/y%0°9++4.0%+2.0%+0.0%(2.0%)(4.0%)(6.0%)(8.0%)(%0'0T)(12.0%)Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenlQ xAOC +C w/e 6/14/25Chart 1 - Convenience Channel Beverage L3M vs. L6M $ Sales GrowthConvenience Channel L3Mvs.L6M$ Sales Growth12.010.010.08.38.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited JefferiesCompany Valuation/RisksFlowers Foods, Inc.Our price target is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple on our 24-month forward estimate. Key risks include (1) inflation, (2) increased competition, and(3) dilution from portfolio optimization/divestmentMurphy USA, Inc.We derive our price target by applying a ~12x EV/EBITDA to our 24-month forward EBITDA forecast. Risks include fuel margin volatility, updates tofuel and tobacco regulation, and food & beverage / unit growth strategy execution.The J. M. Smucker CompanyOur price target is based on P/E multiple on our 24-month forward EPS estimate. Risks include weakening brand equity, given underinvestment andlarge and small branded competition, and coffee cost inflationUtz BrandsOur price target is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple on our 24-month forward EBITDA estimate. Risks include () slower geographic distribution thanAnalyst Certification:I, Scott Marks, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressecin this research reportcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research reportI, Kaumil Gajrawala, certify that allof the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was,is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research reportAs is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensationbased in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulationsas appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedExplanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month periodHold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month periodThe expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below s10 is 20% or more within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security price consistentlybelow s10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform rated