香港及中国大陆房地产研究焦点与新闻观点

HK & mainland ChinaMichelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited+852 2996 6918Raymond Liu*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real Estate and ConglomeratesThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedraymond.w.m.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6743Oliver Yu*Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85222882050Stephen Wang*,CFAAnalyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675Tong Yu*AssociateGuangzhou*Employed byanon-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, andisnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.Hesitant bulls of summerThe 20th edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewIssuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com - Summary of newsHong KongCentaline/HKEJ/HKET: According to Centaline and Land Registry, there were 7,271 units ofproperty transactions registered in June, totalling HKD66.4bn, up 12.9% in unit terms and33.2% m-0-m in dollar terms. Primary-market private home transactions amounted to 2,140units, or HKD35.0bn, up 28.5% and 1.37 times m-0-m, respectively, while secondary-markethome sales amounted to 3,606 units or HKD24.3bn, up 11.2% and 2.5% m-0-m, respectively.Fifth price list released at KT MarinaHKET/HKEJ:K.Wah International,Wheelock and China Overseas havereleased the fifthprice listof 102 units for their co-developed project in Kai Tak, KT Marina (total: 1,017 units). The units aresized at 288-771sqft and priced at HKD8.28-30.84m per unit, or HKD27,141-41,831psf.Kerry Properties releases the first price list for FLORAHKEJ/HKET: Kerry Properties released the first price list for 30 units at FLORA in Yuen Long.This batch includes 10one-bedroom and 20 two-bedroom units sized at 278-407sqft and pricedat HKD3.7-5.1m per unit, or HKD10,388-14,474psf, after a maximum discount of 18%.Mainland ChinaWuxi's Binhu District introduces multiple home purchase subsidiesThe Paper: Wuxi's Binhu District has introduced a series of subsidies for new home purchases,effective from 8 July to 31 Oct 2025, including subsidies of 1% of the total purchase price forcollege students, RMB3o,oo0 subsidies for group purchase by corporate employees,RMB30,000 sugsidies for military personnel, RMB30,000 or RMB60,000 subsidies for familieswith tw0.or free children, and RMB30,000 to RMB50,000 subsidies for spectators of the 2025overnmentwill issue new home purchase vouchers worth RMB50,000 to RMB300,000forhousingvouchersfor resettlementtothepurchaseof secondary homeswithinthedistrict.Cailianshe: On 7 July, 33 construction companies jointly issued an initiative against excessivecompetition within the industry, aiming to foster fair market practices and promote a healthierindustry ecosystem. Tan Zuojun, a representative of the State Council, suggested that industrialtransformation and upgrading are critical to break this zero-sum grind and steer the industrytowards intelligent and green development.Qingdao sells one residential plot for RMB989mGuandian: After 197 rounds of bidding, Junyi Holding secured one residential plot in Qingdao'sa GFA of 37,306 sqm, and its price per sqm ranks second in the area, only lower than theBaiyue Mansion (RMB39,516 per sqm) developed by a local SOE. Hong KongNAvdiscountchart-developers20%-25%-30%-35%-40%-45%-50%-55%-60%-65%70%Jun osp A V %-- MeanSource: LSEG Datastream, HSBC estimatesMainland ChinaNAV discount chart - SOE developers0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%%09--70%-80%% to NAV- MeanNote: The average NAV discount of COLI, CRL, Vanke, GreentownYuexiu, and C&D IntemationalSource: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates Source: LSEG Datastream, HSBC estimatesForward PE (x) - SOE developers412Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14 Apr-16 Apr-18 Apr-20 Apr-2 Apr-2412Mforward PE- MeanNote: The average forward PE of COLI, CRL, Vanke, Greentown,uexiu, C&D International and Longfor based on BloombergSource: Bloomberg,HSBC Note: The average trailing PB of COLI, CRL, Vanke, Greentown, Yuexiu,and C&D International based on monthly data.Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates Key sector metricsHong KongCenta-City Leading Index (CCL)210 -190170 -150130 -11090231Source: Centaline, HSBCMainland ChinaMarket share of Top 15 developers*7.000 RMB35% 35%32%6,00029%g5,00020%1%4,0003,0001392,0001.000ITop 15 (L HS)*Top 15 developers interms of property sales valueWeekly new home sales - 30 key cities'000 sqm8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000Note: Include 4 tier-1 cities, 13 tier-2 cities and 13 tier-3 cities.Source: Wind, HSBC Source: Midland, HSBCMarketshareofTop5developers*3.500 RMBb3.0002,50011% 11%2,0009% 0-01,500 7%08%1,00050ITop 5 (LHS)*TopfivedevelopersintermsofpropertysalesvalueInventory turnover months - 80 cities35 Month302520151080 citiesTier-1Tier-3Source: CRIC, HSBC Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strat