特朗普宣布50%铜进口关税

CopperTrump announces 50% import tariffs+ Trump announced a 50% copper import tariff; timing is in linewith our expectations, but the 50% rate is double our forecast+ Tariffs may be imposed as soon as this month; market pricingin less than 50% probability of full tariff being implemented+ US copper imports should slow as built up inventory isconsumed; we forecast LME prices to fall below UsD9,ooo/tTrump announces 50% copper import tariffs: On 08 July, President Trump toldreporters that the US government was planning on 50% copper tariffs, with US CommerceSecretary stating that they would likely be implemented by 01 August (Bloomberg, 9 July).While the timing of the tariffs comes fully in line with our expectations, the 50% tarff ifimplemented,wouldbedoubleourexpectation.Pleaseseethereport'GlobalMetals&Mining: Copper- The running of the bulls' dated 31 March for more details.Market pricing in less than 50% probability of tariffs: The market appears to bepricing in a low level of probability of a full 50% import tariff in the short term. Comexprices, theoretically, should trade close to a 50% premium to the LME copper price.However, the market appears somewhat skeptical givgn tMe on again, off againnature of tariffs being announced by this administratiori. At the current spot copperprices, we calculate that the market is pricingen a'less than 50% chance of the fulltariff amount being implemented within thnext several months, though a 75%imports into the US are likely tolh yien the build-up of inventory.Copper S/D balance (ex US) likely to loosen post tariffs: Since President Trumpmentioned the possibility of import tariffs on 25 February, copper trade flows haveundergone significant transformation. Incentivized by higher Comex prices, copper importshave increased significantly, and inventory at Comex warehouses has increased by almost150%,attheexpenseofinventoryatLMEwarehouses,whichhasfallenbyover60%(seeCharts 3 and 4 on p2). In turn, this has tightened the copper market outside of the US,driving LME prices to over USD10,000/t recently.We think this is setto reverse itself astariffs are implemented. We expect the build-up of copper inventory in the US to displaceregular copper imports, leading to a looser S/D balance (ex US) and weaker LME copperprices in 2H25. We forecast the LME copper price to average less than USD9,000/t for theremainder of 2025, a decrease of cUSD1,000/t from the current price. Please see ourreportMetals Quarterly Q22025:Everything's“tariffic'for more information.Demand destruction coming? In recent days, the US government has started tothreaten implementationof sectorandcountryleveltariffs,with most slatedtostartbyo1August.As was the casewhenthe"Liberation Day"tariffs werefirstannounced on 3April,ourmainconcern isthepotential fordemanddestructionduetoslowingeconomicgrowth globally caused by these (and retaliatory) trade measures. Please see our reportMetals & Tariffs: No direct hit, but indirect impact could be significant dated o3 April.Disclosures & DisclaimeThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Main chartsChart 1: Comex vs LME copper price (USD/t)13,50012,50011,50010,5009,5008,5007,500Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24LME price (USD/t)Source: Bloomberg, HSBCChart 3: Comex copper inventory (short tons)250,000200,000150,000e100000150.000Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25Comex copper inventorySource: Bloomberg, HSBC Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whosename(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the covering analyst(s) of asubsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s), any views orforecastsexpressedinthesection(s)ofwhichsuch individual(s)is(are)named as author(s),and anyotherviews orforecasts expressedherein, includingany viewsexpressed onthe back page oftheresearch report,accuratelyreflecttheirpersonalview(s)andthat no partof their compensation was, is orwillbe directly or indirectly relatedto the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this researchreport: Jonathan Brandt, CFA, Gustavo Hwang, Shilan Modi, CFA and Howard Lau, CFAImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock shoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions.Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsyst